Weakest Guineas for 18 years? Chaldean aims to prove Classic's worth for the class of '23
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Like any sports journalist, I like to crank up the tension ahead of any major event, piling pressure onto participants and flagging up the significance of what may happen. Chaldean is my subject this time, because it falls to him to shore up the reputation of the 2,000 Guineas he won in the spring, which so far looks like one of the weakest renewals of the race in recent times.
I'm fudging it a bit in saying "one of the weakest", to be honest. It might actually be the weakest 2,000 Guineas I've seen because here's the headline: the first 11 horses home at Newmarket that day have failed to win a single race between them from 30 subsequent attempts.
It's a remarkable situation when you consider what a prestigious, stallion-making race is the 2,000 Guineas. Anyone would love to win it and it comes so early in the season, when hopes are still high and setbacks are less of factor than they will become, that basically any horse with a right to be in the line-up is going to be there. That field should contain the cream of the crop.
To put this year's race in context, you can usually take it for granted that one of the placed horses in the 2,000 Guineas is going to win another Group 1 prize at some point during the season. Last year, the first three horses (Coroebus, Native Trail, Luxembourg) all went on to win other races at the highest level.
It's been 18 years since the last time the placed horses in the 2,000 Guineas failed to win another Group 1 that year. You have to wind all the way back to 2005, when there were particular reasons why the 1-2-3 underachieved thereafter.
That's because the winner was Footstepsinthesand, who never ran again. The placed horses in that 19-runner field were both 100-1 shots, running way above expectations in the conditions of that particular day. In fairness, one of them was Rebel Rebel, who went close in the Woodbine Mile a year later.
Even so, the 2005 Guineas didn't work out all that badly. Fourth home was Oratorio, who won the Eclipse, while the fifth was Dubawi, who won the Irish 2,000 Guineas and the Marois on his way to becoming a super-stallion.
There were horses in this year's Guineas who could have given the form a respectable look but they all finished out the back, beaten 22 lengths or more. They're top-class horses who blatantly didn't give their running, whether it be because of rain-softened ground or travel problems or a bit of both.
Most memorably, there was Auguste Rodin, subsequent winner of the Derby and the Irish Champion, though also practically pulled up in the King George. When he throws in a bad run, he really does the job properly! To me, it looks like he just doesn't want mud any more.
His stablemate Little Big Bear finished last before returning to sprinting, winning the Sandy Lane and running second in the Commonwealth Cup. Just ahead of him at Newmarket was Flight Plan, running easily the worst race of his life. Gradual improvement has since made him a Group 2 winner on Irish Champions Weekend.
If they'd been second, third and fourth in the Guineas, you could say it was a really good renewal. But they so obviously failed to give their running, it's just not plausible to argue their presence contributed anything to the value of the form.
So we return to Chaldean. He was a convincing winner of the Guineas and it's not his fault that those behind him have collectively struggled. The son of Frankel won four in a row last year, including the Dewhurst, and he could still be a major talent.
He was a bit below his best when beaten by Paddington at Royal Ascot and was thoroughly disappointing when odds-on for the Prix Jean Prat. Excuses are needed but connections evidently feel they have some.
"He's in great shape," we were told recently by Barry Mahon of Juddmonte. "He had a couple of hard races and his bloods were a little wrong, alongside a couple of bits and pieces after France, but he's back in great form."
The betting market seems unconvinced, with Chaldean at 14-1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Qipco British Champions Day a week on Saturday. Paddington, Tahiyra, Nashwa and Inspiral are all at shorter odds.
It's a pity he missed an intended prep race in the Joel Stakes but evidently he just wasn't ready in time. A nice drop of rain at Ascot would probably help him but there isn't much in the forecast for now.
Can Chaldean get the victory that would extend the excellent record of the Guineas in identifying future Group 1 winners? It's asking a lot.
Monday's picks, by Richard Birch
Cold Henry looks a red-hot bet when he steps back up in trip in the 2m2f RacingTV HD Bluff Cove Handicap (3.30) at Pontefract. This dual easy-ground Catterick scorer is packed with stamina and it’s no coincidence he recorded a career-best by some considerable margin on his first – and only – start over Pontefract’s regular staying trip in June.
Although unable to cope with the well-handicapped Blow Your Horn, who was completing a midsummer hat-trick, the progressive four-year-old Cold Henry finished five lengths clear of the third Land Of Winter, and was running on strongly at the finish.
Pontefract’s programme is full of low-grade marathon handicaps, and I’m sure his trainer Sara Ender immediately circled several in the calendar for the son of Sixties Icon to tackle.
Cold Henry can race off the same mark, following three subsequent defeats, all of which are easy to explain.
He was given a ridiculous amount to do when a staying-on third behind Baez (has won three more times since) at Catterick, found the ground too quick for him under a welter burden of 9st 12lb at Beverley, and needed further than Nottingham’s 1m6f when an excellent fifth to Motazzen.
Cold Henry, who remains relatively lightly raced, has everything firmly in his favour this time and, unless the unexposed three-year-old Hedonista takes a big step forward for her first opportunity to tackle a proper marathon trip, he should score convincingly.
'He should score convincingly' - our Monday tipster bids to add to last week's 3-1 winner
Three things to look out for today
1. Robbie Llewellyn has become an interesting trainer in his fourth season with a licence, six winners from 22 runners giving him a personal best before we're properly into the autumn. His two wins in the past fortnight include a 12-1 handicap chase success with a newcomer to his yard whose most recent form figures had been 'PPP'. His runner today is Top Cloud, a six-year-old making just his second handicap start in the opener at Stratford, having had a wind operation since he was last seen and with a tongue tie fitted for the first time. He comes from a yard that had a two per cent strike-rate last term, so there are a few potential reasons for an improved showing here. Liam Harrison (two from three for Llewellyn so far) is booked.
2. A recent appearance in the Front Runner has obviously not messed things up for Ben Brookhouse, who has enjoyed five winners from his eight runners over the past fortnight, a run which includes success on the Flat and over hurdles. Two of those recent hurdles winners were going over obstacles for the first time, so the portents are auspicious for Summer Night City, one of four juvenile hurdling debutants who take each other on in the second at Stratford. He's a brother to Lady Reset, whose four hurdles wins for David Pipe include two at Stratford. A thousand apologies if I've just reminded you of the Abba song Summer Night City, which may now be stuck in your head all day.
3. Roger Varian's impressive record with horses returning from wind surgery led us to an 8-1 winner on Friday evening, which possibly means we've used up all our luck for October. But it's worth noting that William Haggas has a recent record that is almost as good when fitting headgear (blinkers, visor or hood) for the first time. Since the start of last year, he's won seven times with 19 such runners, meaning Sea Eagle is worth a second look in a mile handicap at Windsor. The three-year-old is down in class from his first two starts in handicap company, at Goodwood and Newbury in August.
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The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.
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