Up-and-coming trainer has Haydock's big prize in his sights
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As a trainer, things must be going pretty well if you find yourself mulling a choice of Group 1 options for one of your horses. That's where Ed Bethell finds himself with Regional, or at least where he found himself until recently deciding on the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock on Saturday rather than the Flying Five at the Curragh on Sunday.
It's a familiar position if you're William Haggas, say, or John Gosden. Now it's Bethell's turn, in his third season with a licence, to savour one of those more enjoyable problems.
His thinking, in favouring the longer race, is that the minimum trip looked just a bit on the sharp side when we saw Regional a matter of ten days ago in the Nunthorpe. "He just seemingly got taken out of his comfort zone at York, with Live In The Dream going as fast as he did, and he kind of ran on at the end," Bethell reflects.
The Front Runner has caught him at a vexed moment in the Arsenal v Manchester United game, in which the Bethell sympathies lie with the away side. Still, he manages to keep an admirable focus on the abilities of his classy sprinter.
"Six is fine. He won a handicap over 6f, he came third in the Stewards' Cup over 6f. He's just as good and maybe he'll be able to travel a bit better at that distance. That's my thinking."
The weather is a factor, as it will be for so many horses engaged this weekend. Many of us are supposed to spend the next four or five days bathing in glorious heat, if you can believe it, which ought to be great news for fast-ground types like Regional.
But so often there's a sting in the tail of this kind of weather. Bethell has been told the weather could break in spectacular fashion at some stage and obviously he doesn't want any downpours until 3.40pm on Saturday.
"I want to run him if it's fast ground or good ground but there are thunderstorms due next weekend and I don't know what days. It seems kind of up in the air. It's just whether they come earlier... I'm hoping they don't."
The bookmakers are having a hard time looking past the super-talented, half-mad Shaquille, who has reared at the start of his last two races and then won them anyway. But he's going to beat himself one of these days and then everything will be up for grabs. Regional is a 20-1 shot in places for the Haydock race.
That reflects the fact that he was unplaced on his first try at this level. But there are plenty of positives to take from the Nunthorpe run.
"It was huge," says Bethell. "He was beaten, what, a length by Highfield Princess?
"Take nothing away from the winner, they had a game plan and it worked extraordinarily well. Nothing could catch him.
"We ran an almighty race. To get that close in a Group 1 is definitely more than we could have expected when we bought him for £3,500."
Perhaps the whole season has been more than Bethell could have expected. Having had 22 winners in each of his first two years, he's up to 34 this time at an excellent 23 per cent strike-rate, with total prize-money of almost half a million.
Regional is the flag-flier but there are other highly rated animals at his Middleham base, including Chillingham, Coverdale and Oviedo, who went so close in the Sky Bet Finale at the Ebor meeting. Point Lynas, also second in a valuable handicap that week, could be joining Regional on the lorry to Haydock, where his target would be the Group 3 Superior Mile, won by Bethell's Artistic Rifles in 2021.
"I'm genuinely over the moon," Bethell says, reflecting on the last few months. "It's a big team effort and of course it's not over yet. Hopefully we can keep it going. The horses have been really healthy all year."
Monday's picks, by Richard Birch
There are a plethora of reasons to expect Brighton specialist Lethal Angel to bounce back to form, now she returns to her favourite venue for the Ian Carnaby Handicap (3.35). The Brett Johnson-trained sprinter was in tremendous form at the seaside track at around this time last year, winning handicaps in August and September from marks of 54 and 57.
She was particularly impressive on the second occasion, storming up the hill under a well-timed challenge to thrash Jack Ryan. Inevitably, the handicapper took note, and Lethal Angel has struggled off marks mainly in the mid-60s since.
However, Lethal Angel has now been granted some welcome slack and left the impression at Newmarket last time that she is ready to strike. Dropped 5lb after being out of her depth in Class 4 company at Epsom, Lethal Angel was held up out the back in the 0-85 Grey Horse Handicap.
Time and time again this summer it has been proved that horses who front-run or sit close to the pace on the July course hold a massive advantage over those ridden from behind. Lethal Angel, who started 80-1 for that race, made significant late headway from well off the gallop to finish ninth of 15 behind Silver Samurai.
Her mark has eased a further 3lb since that run and Johnson has booked apprentice Harry Burns to take off another 3lb. In effect, Lethal Angel can compete off a mark of 55, which is 2lb below her last winning rating.
She boasts Brighton form figures of 1121 when officially rated under 60. The significant drop in class from Epsom and Newmarket is clearly a huge plus point and drying ground will help.
Three things to look out for on Monday
1. Live In The Dream's 28-1 upset success in the Nunthorpe turns out to have been a useful pointer to the form of Adam West's yard. The Epsom stable is now among the hottest in Britain, with four wins from 14 runners over the past fortnight. Satono Japan followed up at 12-1 in an Epsom handicap a week ago, while West won with both his runners at Fontwell on Friday. This is a busy day by West's standards, as he runs three. Stable form is really the only reason you could fancy Mighty Pearl but Lord Clenaghcastle is making his debut for the yard and is well treated on old form. Rolypolymoly runs on the Flat for only the second time this year, following two poor efforts over hurdles, and is tried in a visor. By the by, West has given a long interview to my colleague Catherine Macrae, which you can read here.
2. Stromberg is a fascinating contender for the opener at Roscommon. After a respectable debut, he broke his maiden by ten lengths at Galway and has all sorts of fancy entries, including a Group 2 at Leopardstown on Saturday which is presumably now off the agenda. He's also in the Champagne, the Beresford, the Royal Lodge and the Dewhurst, for which bookies have him at a top price of 16-1, the same odds as Saturday's Solario winner, Aablan. Joseph O'Brien's runner is likely to start at odds-on, considering his main rival is a stablemate, Nor Time Nor Tide.
3. Fool's Gold attracted plenty of interest last night in the market for Windsor's second race. Three firms chalked him up at 8-1 but that didn't last long and, at the time of writing, he's no bigger than 6-4. He's not from one of the big-name yards and his only form figure is a six but he showed plenty of pace before tiring on that Newmarket debut last month and he's in both the Middle Park and the Dewhurst. Someone must like him! He's a Galileo Gold half-brother to The Platinum Queen, who won last year's Abbaye as a juvenile.
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The Front Runner is our unmissable email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday. Not a Members' Club Ultimate subscriber? Click here to join today and also receive our Ultimate Daily emails plus our full range of fantastic website and newspaper content.
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