'The ground should be perfect and he has no excuses' - analysis and quotes for a quality Scottish Champion Hurdle

Rubaud, an impressive winner of this race 12 months ago off an official mark of 135, defends his crown from a 13lb higher rating.

There is no doubt he has improved since – a fluent four-and-a-quarter-length victory over Hansard in the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton is testimony to that – but the suspicion remains he will require a career-best under top weight of 11st 12lb.

L’Eau Du Sud, runner-up in two of the most fiercely contested handicap hurdles of the season – the Betfair Hurdle and County Hurdle – probably brings the best recent form to the table.

However, he has gone up 9lb for those two defeats, and may need to show further improvement to defy his mark.

The novice Favour And Fortune is a fascinating contender, pitched into his first handicap off 138.

A winner of four of his eight races, his jumping let him down in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, but he was only beaten nine and three-quarter lengths by Slade Steel.

The Supreme runner-up, Mystical Power, has since franked the form with a Grade 1 Aintree success, and there could be plenty more to come from Favour And Fortune.

The market suggests the pick of the Willie Mullins team could be Bialystok, a big eyecatcher at Leopardstown in February.

He appeared to be full of running when brought down two out in the Listed handicap hurdle won by Lord Erskine, but failed to build on that performance when only 15th of 17 behind stablemate Absurde in the County Hurdle.

Petit Tonnerre, who finished one place behind Bialystok at Cheltenham, has been dropped 4lb by the handicapper since, and could go well in first-time cheekpieces.

There are others at big prices who cannot be ruled out in an intriguing Scottish Champion Hurdle which boasts considerable depth.

Favour And Fortune 'in fine shape' for Ayr test

The general rule of thumb is that a horse needs to have several pounds in hand of the handicapper to win races of this nature.

Favour And Fortune, by far the least exposed in a 15-runner line-up, brings Grade 1 form to the table, and it’s almost certain we have not seen the best of him just yet.

Trainer Alan King would love the opportunity to see Favour And Fortune on drier ground – his last four runs have all been on a surface officially described as soft or heavy – but believes the six-year-old will still run a big race.

"I'm dying to see Favour And Fortune on a decent surface, but this is his last chance to run this season so we have no option but to give it a go," King said.

"The Cheltenham form has stacked up well, with the placed horses, Mystical Power and Firefox, finishing first and second in another Grade 1 at Aintree. I’m hoping Favour And Fortune, who is in fine shape having given Liverpool a miss, and schooled well on Monday, will be able to do himself justice."

What they say

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Rubaud and Afadil
Rubaud ran an ordinary race at Wincanton last time. He wasn’t right that day, and the ground was very heavy which he didn’t like. He’s a stone higher than when he won the race last year, which says it all really. The more the ground dries up for him the better. Afadil always seems to run well on his trips north. He won at this meeting last year and, providing this race doesn’t come too soon after his third at Aintree last week, I think he’s got a good each-way chance. He has lovely weight, with Freddie Gingell claiming 5lb.

Dan Skelton, trainer of L'Eau Du Sud
It was a massive run in the County. This race was the most obvious one to go for immediately afterwards and we've trained him for it. The ground should be perfect and he has no real excuses.

Cian Collins, trainer of Effernock Fizz
It was a great win at Fairyhouse, the way she did it was unbelievable. I don't think too many horses could have won in the manner she did. Carl [Millar] gave her a great ride, he knows her well and they're a very good team. The better ground, the better her chance.

Jonjo O’Neill jr, rider of Petit Tonnerre
He has been running well over fences for most of the season. Things didn’t go well back over hurdles at Cheltenham last time. I'm hoping a good gallop round Ayr will suit him better.

Nick Alexander, trainer of Ginger Mail
It’s a very competitive race, but I thought we’d let him take his chance. He loves the track, and goes there in great form. I think he’ll outrun his odds.

Brian Ellison, trainer of Salsada
She's improved with every run. I was very happy with her third at Haydock last time. I quite fancy her; I think she’ll go very well. She’s in really good form at home, and the ground won’t be a bother.

Read our Saturday previews: 

1.50 Ayr: Sharjah leads the Willie Mullins charge as Grade 1-winning veteran tackles competitive Scottish Champion Chase 

2.05 Newbury: 1,000 Guineas clues on offer as Gosdens clash with speedy Relief Rally in Group 3 Fred Darling 

2.40 Newbury: Can Zoum Zoum get Ralph Beckett's big season off to a fast start at Newbury? 

3.15 Newbury: Will a low draw be key to Spring Cup success again or has the market got it right? 

3.35 Ayr: 'I've no doubt he's better than his mark' - top trainers on their leading Scottish Grand National hopes 

3.55 Curragh: Derby third White Birch and Spanish footballer's big hope clash in intriguing Alleged Stakes 

Ayr has never seen anything like it as Willie Mullins brings huge team in search of a first success  

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