2024 Grand National: assessing the top six contenders for the big race at Aintree
The Randox Grand National is less than a month away and post-Cheltenham the picture for this year’s race is beginning to clear up. In anticipation of another enthralling running, we’ve delved into the form of the main contenders and looked into how the past week’s action has brought new names into contention.
Corach Rambler
Form: 11-533
Strengths: Justified 8-1 favouritism to land this race last year when capitalising on being 10lb ahead of his mark following a win in the Ultima Handicap Chase, in which he had subsequent dual Grade 1 winner Fastorslow behind.
He idled when hitting the front at Aintree and looked value for further than the two-and-a-quarter-length winning margin.
He shaped with plenty of promise when a 14-1 third in last week’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, a run which was his first since November and should bring him on nicely for his National defence.
Weaknesses: He finds himself on a 13lb higher mark this year and wouldn’t want ground conditions to get too testing.
Odds: 6-1
I Am Maximus
Form: 1-1431
Strengths: Lost his maiden tag over fences in last year’s Irish Grand National, in which he improved for the step up to three miles five furlongs.
He claimed the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase on his seasonal reappearance at Fairyhouse in December, before chasing home stablemate Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase and the Irish Gold Cup.
He appreciated the drop in grade when justifying favouritism in the Bobbyjo Chase back at Fairyhouse last month, where he had last year’s Grand National runner-up Vanillier 14 lengths behind.
Weaknesses: He can race lazily and hasn't always been the most fluent jumper (often goes out to his left at his fences).
Odds: 12-1
Vanillier
Form: 2-5502
Strengths: A strong stayer who came from a long way back to finish second behind Corach Rambler in last year’s Grand National.
He has been gradually stepped up in trip in his four runs this season, prepping for this race with a second in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, an identical route to last year.
The handicapper appears to have given him a chance off a mark of 151, which is just 4lb higher than last year, and he enjoys a 9lb swing in the weights with Corach Rambler.
Weaknesses: He remains without a win since November 2021 and his career strike-rate is a fairly modest 3-21.
Odds: 12-1
Noble Yeats
Form: 4-7217
Strengths: He became the first seven-year-old to win the National since 1940 when scoring under Sam Waley-Cohen in 2022.
He ran creditably when fourth off a 19lb higher mark last year and has subsequently claimed the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.
He was not beaten all that far in seventh in the Stayers’ Hurdle last week and should appreciate stepping back up to a marathon trip on his return to fences.
Weaknesses: He is only 1lb below last year’s mark and could be vulnerable to something off a lighter weight.
Odds: 16-1
Mahler Mission
Form: 12F-22
Strengths: He was four lengths clear when falling two out in last year’s National Hunt Chase and has long indicated that marathon trips would suit.
He finished a respectable second in the Colin Parker Memorial Chase over an insufficient two and a half miles on his seasonal reappearance at Carlisle in November, before chasing home Datsalrightgino in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury over three and a quarter miles.
He has been kept fresh for the National since that run and looks open to improvement on the back of only seven chase starts.
Weaknesses: The handicapper has assigned him a mark of 158, which represents a 7lb rise from the Coral Gold Cup.
Odds: 16-1
Meetingofthewaters
Form: 4311U3
Strengths: Has produced progressive Racing Post Ratings in all five completed starts since joining Willie Mullins from Eugene O’Sullivan last year.
He made a mockery of a mark of 130 when bolting up in a 3m½f Listed handicap chase at Leopardstown in December, before finishing third off a 17lb higher rating in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last week.
On that evidence he’s a dour stayer whose current rating looks within reach.
Weaknesses: His jumping can leave a little to be desired and this will be by far his toughest test.
Odds: 16-1
Who else has recently come into contention?
Limerick Lace brought her record over fences to five wins from ten starts when landing the Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham and could step up markedly in trip to contest the National. Last week’s win came over 2m4½f but she had finished second in the Troytown over three miles earlier this season and is a sister to Inothewayurthinkin, who claimed the Kim Muir over three and a quarter miles at Cheltenham last week.
The Willie Mullins-trained Mr Incredible was still in contention when his saddle slipped in last year’s National and he made his belated seasonal reappearance in Saturday’s Midlands Grand National, where he stayed on to finish second behind Beauport. He’ll run off a 5lb higher mark this year but has presumably been trained with the National in mind.
Verdict
Corach Rambler ran a fine prep in the Gold Cup and looks sure to benefit from the step back up in trip. He is up 13lb from last year, however, and that may prove too much of a burden at the business end of this race, particularly if the ground is soft. Preference instead goes to I Am Maximus, who runs off the same mark of 159 but judged on his impressive Irish Grand National success is a stayer of immense potential, with his trainer Willie Mullins viewing him as a future Gold Cup horse. He bolted up in the Bobbyjo Chase, often considered a key National trial, at Fairyhouse last time and that brought his form figures in races below Grade 1 level over fences to 2211.
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Published on 19 March 2024inGrand National festival
Last updated 08:03, 19 March 2024
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