2024 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes contenders: assessing the key runners for the big race on Saturday

The Group 1 Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (3.35) at Newbury is the big race on Saturday. Here we go through the form of the leading contenders and give a verdict on who will come out on top . . .

Inspiral

Form: /25111-

Strengths: High-class mare who landed a sixth Group 1 with a scintillating performance in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf in November when producing an impressive turn of foot to come from an improbable winning position under Frankie Dettori on her first start at beyond a mile. That win followed two more victories at the top level, including a second success in the Prix Jacques le Marois, in which she got the better of Big Rock by a length and a quarter. She loves fast ground and has no problems running well after a break.

Inspiral: vying for favouritism on her return in the LockingeCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Weaknesses: Slow starts have become commonplace and have hindered her, including when disappointing in the 2022 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, while she was well below her best on her sole run on soft ground in last year's Sussex, so any notable rainfall has to be of concern.

Odds: 15-8f

Inspiral15:35 Newbury

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Jky: Kieran Shoemark Tnr: John & Thady Gosden

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Big Rock

Form: 12221-

Strengths: A big improver last year, beating Horizon Dore (subsequently third in the Champion Stakes) by five lengths in a Group 3 and finishing second in three Group 1s, most notably behind Arc hero Ace Impact in the Prix du Jockey Club, before taking his form to a new level when storming to victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. He went off hard and was clear after two furlongs, but he kept powering on to win unchallenged by six lengths, with Facteur Cheval, who had previously chased home Paddington, giving the visual impression some substance.

Big Rock: surged clear to record a comfortable success at Ascot when last seenCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Weaknesses: Has a length and a quarter to find with Inspiral on their Jacques le Marois clash and meets that rival on 6lb worse terms here. Has moved from Christopher Head's yard.

Odds: 2-1

Big Rock15:35 Newbury

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Jky: Aurelien Lemaitre Tnr: Maurizio Guarnieri

Charyn

Form: 833-11

Strengths: Consistent performer at three, not managing to win any of his seven starts but placed twice in Group 1 company and finished fourth in the Irish 2,000 Guineas behind Paddington. Had done well physically over the winter according to trainer Roger Varian and looks much improved this term, readily winning the Doncaster Mile before producing another smart effort when coming late to land the bet365 Mile at Sandown. Seems to handle all ground conditions.

Charyn: bet365 Mile success took his record as a four-year-old to 2-2Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Weaknesses: Seemed to have his limitations at this level exposed last year and will need to show even more improvement from his last run to match the figures produced by the market principals.

Odds: 6-1

Charyn15:35 Newbury

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Jky: Tnr: Roger Varian

Poker Face

Form: 1112-2

Strengths: Much improved since dropping back to a mile at the backend of last season, completing a hat-trick with victory over Isaac Shelby in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein before finishing second in the Premio Vittorio Di Capua. Reappeared with a fine second when trying to give the race-fit Charyn 3lb in the bet365 Mile and there shouldn't be much between them on revised terms, while he's sure to come on for the run. Deserves a shot in Group 1 company.

Poker Face: should strip fitter for his reappearance at SandownCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Weaknesses: Hasn't faced rivals of this quality before and has to find upwards of 7lb on ratings (11lb with Big Rock) with the principals.

Odds: 7-1

Poker Face15:35 Newbury

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Jky: James Doyle Tnr: Simon & Ed Crisford

How about the remainder?

Royal Scotsman was a talented juvenile and looked a touch unlucky not to finish closer in last year's 2,000 Guineas. Although there weren't any excuses for two subsequent no-shows, the fact he's been kept in training hints that connections think he's got more to offer.

Flight Plan and Dear My Friend look closely matched on their Listed Burrandon Stakes clash last year, when only a neck separated them. Dear My Friend was a big improver returned to a mile after wind surgery this year but was well beaten in a handicap last time, albeit off a huge weight, while Flight Plan ended last year with a Group 2 success and could have more to offer.

Inspiral's stablemate Audience was a ready winner of a Group 3 on his reappearance last year and twice placed in Group 2 company after that, but has a bit to find upped in class on his first try at a mile.

Real World hasn't been seen in Britain since chasing home Baaeed in the 2022 Queen Anne and would be interesting if getting back to his best, but he hasn't shown anything near that in subsequent starts in the Middle East and age might just be catching up with him.

Witch Hunter won a Group 2 on his last visit to Newbury but looks better suited to seven furlongs, while Hi Royal looked back near to his best when third in a Group 3 on his reappearance and could be a danger if let loose on the front end, especially as he should strip fitter here.

Verdict

Big Rock's impressive display at Ascot saw him produce a bigger Racing Post Rating than any of his rivals have managed and his chances will only increase if the rain arrives in any notable amount, but he's a big horse and is with a new yard this term, so it's more than likely he'll come on for the run and I'm happy to leave him alone.

Inspiral is a class act, goes well fresh and is definitely the one to be with if the ground is quick enough for her, but I can't resist having a little each-way wager on Hi Royal at a big price.

His form went the wrong way after placing in the 2,000 Guineas and the Irish equivalent at the Curragh, but he got right back on track after a break and wind surgery when third in the Earl Of Sefton and is sure to strip fitter for that outing.

Four-year-olds have dominated in recent years and Kevin Ryan, who downed Inspiral with Triple Time in the Queen Anne last year, clearly holds Hi Royal in high regard.

Not a lot separates the field beyond the top two, and there's every chance that Hi Royal could get loose on the front end and prove hard to catch.

Hi Royal15:35 Newbury

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Jky: Tnr: Kevin Ryan

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