US racing tips: Tom Collins looks to continue hot streak with two at Will Rogers
9.15 Will Rogers Downs
9.45 Will Rogers Downs
3pts winA good selection of fillies and maresis set to go to post for the $26,400 allowance (9.15) contest at Will Rogers Downs, a race in which there is sure to be astrong early pace thanks to the speedy Sweet Mary M.
Sweet Mary M is forecast to go off as one of the favourites (3-1 morning line) and that isn't a surprise given her improving form, the factthat she receives a 6lb weight-for-age allowance from each of her rivals anda nice inside draw in gate two.
However, she backed out of things pretty tamely when well fancied last time and although making the front looks a strong possibility, I'm going to take her on with the late-running Justaboutright.
Trained by Alan Williams, this four-year-old daughter of 2007 Grade 2 San Rafael Stakes winner Notional is bred to get a mile and that's evident in the way she finishes her races over this 6f trip.
She isn't the sharpest into stride but has good early pace to sit in behind the leaders and regularly produces a taking burst when asked to change gears in the straight.
Just a $1,800 purchase as a yearling, Justaboutright proved that pricetag to be all wrong when she got off the mark at her first attempt at Will Rogers in maiden special weight company in March.
That was her seventh start overall (had previously run well at the same level at Remington Park), and she demonstrated a good ability and fine finishing kick to run down Hallies Dream in a race that has worked out well. Four horses in behind have won since, three of them on their next start.
Justaboutright was then pitched into a tough allowance contest and showed more pace than usual, forcing regular rider Benny Landeros to take a tight hold down the back straight. Those early exertions took their toll in the final furlong but she wasn't disgraced in finishing third.
She was back with a bang last time when flying late to pick up an odds-on favourite in this grade and a repeat effort would make her hard to hold after six weeks on the sidelines. Her forecast price of
9-2 is too big to ignore.
Ten runners are set to go to post in the following $7,150 maiden claimer (9.45), a 5f race that clearly doesn't featuremany talented sprinters.
Most of the runners look completely exposed and haven't shown any progression on their recent outings, but the diamond in the rough looks to be Ray Ashford's Diamonata.
A sharp worker over sprint trips, Diamonata could be away and gone from the minute the gates open from her nice draw in gate three.
She looked green on debut in maiden special weight company at the start of last month, but quickly gathered her stride after a slow break and raced powerfully in behind the leaders before getting tired late.
That was a run full of promise and she was consequently punted off the boards despite being drawn in gate 12 of 12 when dropped to maiden claiming company last time.
Diamonata broke sharply and showed a really nice turn of pace entering the homebend, where she took a number of lengths out of all bar one of her rivals. That rival was a first-time starter, who loomed up large on her outside and went on to score at 20-1 (31-1 in the US).
Diamonata was clear of the rest of her pursuers entering the straight over that 5½f trip and although she lost two places in the final 50 yards to finish fourth, she was clearly second-best in that field.
Ashford has smartly dropped her back to the flat 5f, which is sure to suit, and a clean break should enable her to build up an unassailable margin entering the stretch run.
Place bets on international races with the Racing Post app. Log in to your bookmaker accounts in the Accounts tab in the bottom right and then click cards to view the racecards