Tom Collins analyses the credentials of four favourites in the US
6.45 Gulfstream Park
SP forecast 3-5
Expensive colt who is improving with each start and looks sure to get off the mark at the fifth attempt given a clean break. Two fourth-placed finishes have been followed by a couple of runner-up efforts, the most recent of which was a career-best behind a smart Chad Brown-trained rival.
Conclusion Wouldn't need to run to his best to get off the mark.
One More Drink
6.58 Tampa Bay Downs
SP forecast 2-1
Winless in nine starts, One More Drink has become a frustrating gelding and has been beaten at short odds (11-10, 1-3 and evens) in his last three races. Has the best form in the book but always seems to find one to beat him.
ConclusionLooks to be regressing. Lay.
9.53 Gulfstream Park
SP forecast 8-5
A sharp-working filly, Envoutante showed plenty of promise on her first two outings in mile contests (one on turf and one on dirt) before getting off the mark at the third attempt in all-the-way fashion. She won by six-and-a-half lengths that day but was never pressured on the front.
ConclusionDrawn well in gate one but this is a big step up in class and she is too short. Return to turf might not suit either.
11.29 Oaklawn Park
SP forecast 4-7
A $700,000 purchase who looks a ready-made champion for trainer Bob Baffert. Charlatan has won both career starts having never seen another rival and is likely to do exactly the same again from gate one. His speed figures are far superior to any of his rivals.
ConclusionCan enhance his reputation by landing division one of the Arkansas Derby.
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