Keith Melrose analyses the credentials of four favourites in the US
SP forecast Evens
Represents powerful connections and has some good speed figures behind her, but they were mostly recorded elsewhere and she remains a maiden after seven starts. This is a good opportunity on the whole, but one or two are of some interest, most notably Crystalina, who shaped as though in need of further last time and has also had some stalls practice.
Conclusion Crystalina offers much better value at the prices.
6.12 Tampa Bay
SP forecast 5-2
Has landed in a weak race and could earn a reward for his consistency, having been third on five of his seven starts. However, there has been little progress across his runs and it could be that he is just modest, which leaves little room for manoeuvre.
Conclusion The less exposed types will not need to improve by much.
SP forecast 8-5
Second on both starts since her debut, recording a decent speed figure last time. Has a kind draw, too. However, likely second-favourite Guazza is feared. She improved to finishthird last time on what was just her second start and has since recorded an impressive piece of work, running half a mile in 47.4 seconds (the best of 44 at Palm Meadows that day).
Conclusion Could well be another for second-favourite backers.
SP forecast 4-1
Holds a perfect career record, courtesy of her easy win in a maiden at Belmont this time last year that earned her $50,000. Has since left Wesley Ward and it seems clear there have been issues in the meantime, but she has done plenty of track work and some of it has been really eyecatching, so it would be no surprise to see her match debut form, especially with leading rider Luis Saez up.
Conclusion Well worth chancing as she looked smart on her debut.
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