World Darts Championship final predictions and PDC darts betting tips

PDC darts tips, best bets and player analysis for the final of the 2022 William Hill World Darts Championship at Alexandra Palace, London

When to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event & Arena, 8pm Monday

Best bets

Peter Wright to get most 180s
3pts 21-20 Betfred

Peter Wright to win 7-1
1pt 18-1 BoyleSports

Peter Wright to win 7-2
1pt 10-1 bet365, BoyleSports

Peter Wright -2.5 sets
1pt 7-4 bet365, BoyleSports

Michael Smith v Peter Wright

Head-to-head: Wright leads 23-12

Michael Smith and Peter Wright meet in the final of the William Hill World Championship tonight, toeing the oche at 8.15pm in darts' showpiece occasion, with bookmakers predicting a tight contest.

Smith is the 11-10 outsider, with Wright available at 4-5. Both men have produced top tungsten to get this far - and the pair needed to be at their best to come through tricky semi-finals last night. Smith had a 100.98 average in seeing off James Wade 6-3, while Wright got embroiled in an epic against Gary Anderson, courageously emerging a 6-4 winner as the clock ticked towards midnight.

The tournament averages of Smith and Wright are remarkably similar - and the main reason why the layers have priced the final up so competitively. Smith is on 100.65, while Wright's is 100.66. Technically, then, there is nothing between them, but who is more likely to continue that stellar form?

Surely, the answer to that question is Peter Wright. This final could be played more between the ears than most - and the odds do not adequately reflect the distinct possibility of Smith completely freezing with anxiety when he sets eyes upon the Sid Waddell Trophy.

The silverware will be on the stage for the denouement - and Smith admitted he could not stop looking at it during his previous opportunity to become a world champion in 2019. Having cruised through his semi three years ago, defeating Nathan Aspinall by the same scoreline he downed Wade last night, Smith was crushed 7-3 by Michael van Gerwen in the final.

The occasion could easily lead to a significant Smith performance dip - and the value lies in a heavy Wright success. The head-to-head record is emphatically in Wright's favour - 23-12, with a 13-3 margin in televised matches. And recently Smith has been humbled at the deadly hands of Snakebite. They met in the World Matchplay and Grand Slam of Darts last year. Smith was 12-8 up in the Grand Slam meeting, before losing 16-12, with Wright rattling off eight consecutive legs.

Smith has not beaten Wright on television since the regulation stages of the 2018 Premier League. And in the 2020 Masters final, Smith missed three match darts in the deciding leg against Wright.
More importantly, Smith has played in five major televised finals and lost them all. Finally getting the job done in the biggest tournament of them all would be an immense achievement.

Punters should overlook the general consensus that this will be a close final, and sniff around the fancy correct-score prices about Wright winning easily. Smith has made a habit of terrible starts in prestigious finals - he went 4-0 down against Van Gerwen in that 2019 WC final, he went 9-0 down against Rob Cross in the 2019 Matchplay final, and he went 8-1 down against Van Gerwen in the 2018 Premier League final. If Smith is like a rabbit in the headlights again tonight, Wright could end this contest quicker than most are predicting.

Smith has been working on the mental side of his game and has obviously done well to overcome an unkind draw. It must be said, though, that Gerwyn Price had three darts in his hand to take out 42 and eliminate Smith in their quarter-final meeting. Price, who had issues with the Ally Pally crowd throughout the tournament, let the boo-boys get to him and failed. Wright has not allowed any opponent to get match darts against him in this event - and that should continue.

The enormity of the situation could hit Smith like an anvil today. He has spoken about mortgages in his post-match media conferences, how important it is to stay focused for his family, and how he wants his kids to be able to go to school and say "My dad is a world champion!". With a £500,000 first prize up for grabs, as well as the ultimate glory, Smith probably wants this too much.

The fact that Wright has already become a world champion gives him a huge psychological edge. The 2020 victor has even spoken about how he feels he is "defending" to an extent, with last year's event having been an inferior, spectator-free gathering.

Wright has grown into the tournament. He was mystifyingly drifting on the exchanges in the lead-up to the event, before revealing that he had suffered a bad reaction to his Covid booster jab. That meant he had to down tools for a few days and stay in bed, so he did not get much practice in before his opener, but fortunately Ryan Meikle failed to sparkle and Wright won 3-0.

Damon Heta led Wright 2-0 in round three, but Snakebite switched back to his old, gold darts and fought back to win 4-2. From there, he has looked the man to beat, overcoming magnificent performances from Callan Rydz and Anderson.

Smith fans were excited by news of Wright's knee discomfort, which he revealed after beating Anderson, but this may have been blown out of proportion. Wright was offered physio on his knee and turned it down, so he clearly is not overly worried. The knee got warm inside his brace in the latter stages of the semi-final, so it may just provide an added spur for Wright to wrap up this match quickly.

Wright looked so comfortable attacking the lipstick against Anderson, setting a new record for 180s hit in a match (24), and Snakey can be backed at odds-against to have more maximums than Smith tonight. The free-flowing, 'sexy darts' which Smith delivers have clearly enchanted the bookmakers, but over the course of last year, Wright was a much more effective 180 machine.

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