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Wimbledon

Marin Cilic has a big chance of claiming Slam glory on grass

Del Potro could go close after reaching Roland Garros semis

Queen's king Marin Cilic gets in some practice at Wimbledon
Queen's king Marin Cilic gets in some practice at WimbledonCredit: Matthew Stockman

Starts 11.30am Monday

Roger Federer triumphed for a record-breaking eighth time at Wimbledon last year and the Swiss legend has a favourite's chance to retain his title at the All England Club after following a similar path to last season.

Federer captured back-to-back Australian Open titles before skipping the clay campaign and he continues to jostle with Rafael Nadal for the number one ranking – the Majorcan returned to the top of the tree after Federer failed to triumph in Halle earlier this month.

While the 36-year-old has obvious claims, he is a shorter price to lift the trophy this year than he was in 2017 and there's an argument for suggesting that he is not playing as well this time around.

He completed the spring double last year, but found Juan Martin del Potro too strong in the 2018 Indian Wells final in March before powerful Aussie Thanasi Kokkinakis defeated him in the early stages of the Miami Open.

Federer returned with a victory on grass in Stuttgart that saw him regain the number one ranking, but a Halle final defeat against Borna Coric took Nadal back to the pinnacle.

The Spaniard, a dominant winner of the French Open, is an obvious threat to Federer's crown. The king of clay has had the better of the argument between the two over the years – even though Federer has won their last five meetings – and Nadal will be determined to silence the doubters who suggest that he can no longer win on grass.

But the Majorcan has to answer those questions. He was similarly ruthless on the red dirt last season but could only make the fourth round in the London Grand Slam, beaten by big-serving Gilles Muller in a five-set classic which ended in the Luxembourger winning the fifth 15-13.

Nadal’s recent Wimbledon form is a concern. Despite winning the title twice, he has failed to reach the last eight in his last five trips to the grass Slam. However, bookmakers have still cut his price following a kind draw. While fans would dearly love to see one more Federer v Nadal final on Centre Court, there are better bets elsewhere.

Novak Djokovic has struggled with injuries for the best part of two years but the Serbian ace will have his backers.

Djokovic has an obvious chance but his quarter of the draw looks treacherous and the Serb, while surely nearing peak fitness, doesn't look to have the steely determination that brought him 12 Grand Slam victories and he let slip a 4-1 tiebreak lead when a set up in the Queen's Club final against Marin Cilic.

Andy Murray announced on Sunday that he will not be taking part this year as he continues to recover from a hip injury.

Champion's top tip
Marin Cilic 15-2
No player outside the big four has won the Wimbledon men's title since Lleyton Hewitt in 2002, but this could be the time to take on that illustrious quartet with two players who have already tasted Grand Slam success and look ready to challenge for All England Club glory.

Marin Cilic could be the man to break the trend. The Croat reached his first Wimbledon final last year when he was no match for Federer, but severe blisters blighted Cilic's challenge and he would surely have shown more if fighting fit.

A US Open champion already, Cilic is arguably at his most effective on grass where his serve is a massive weapon and his powerful forehand can trouble even the best defensive players.

He blew a massive chance to beat Federer in the 2016 tournament, winning the first two sets and failing to convert match points, but showed grit and determination to beat Djokovic at Queen’s two weeks ago.

He should be peaking at 29 years of age and, seeded third, has a decent route to a potential semi-final showdown with Federer. If they meet in the last four, the Croat could well avenge both last year's Wimbledon defeat and the loss that the Swiss inflicted on him in January's Australian Open final.

Other selection
Juan Martin del Potro 22-1
Three players have beaten Federer this year and of all of them, Del Potro is probably the likeliest to do so again should they meet in the Wimbledon final.

The swashbuckling Argentinian is a similar player to Cilic, whom he beat in the last eight at Roland Garros before bumping into a rampant Nadal and giving the Pearl of Manacor a major scare in the early stages before struggling to stay with the 11-time French champion.

Delpo has a huge armoury and is able to take players out of their comfort zone because of it. Like Cilic, he is a US Open champion, but he has continually flattered to deceive at the highest level since his Flushing Meadows triumph.

The Tower of Tandil has suffered with injury problems throughout his best years, and wrist troubles are never far away, but he looks as close as ever to his peak and he would be a hugely popular winner at the All England Club in what would be considered a triumph over adversity.

He's a 20-1 shot because there are risks attached, but Delpo has all the tools needed to take down the big names and is on a collision course with Nadal in the quarters.

Nadal leads their personal series 10-5 but take out clay clashes and it’s only 7-5 in his favour. There shouldn't be much between them in the betting but Delpo is a much bigger outright price and worthy of an each-way bet.

Others to note
Nick Kyrgios The capricious Aussie reached the semi-finals at Queen's, losing to Cilic, and is a danger to all if fit. He would be a tempting bet but is no price given his inconsistent nature and fiery persona.

Alexander Zverev The exciting German has all the tools to succeed on grass and achieved his best Grand Slam finish at the French Open. He was struggling with injury in Paris, however, and a first-round loss at Halle suggests he may not be 100 per cent.

Milos Raonic The big-serving Canadian beat Federer to reach the final two years ago but has endured a difficult time since. A danger if on song.

Borna Coric The Croat defeated Federer in Halle. He is tough to beat but might struggle to beat the Swiss in a best-of-five contest should they clash again.

Dominic Thiem The French Open finalist can be considered a clay-court specialist at this stage of his career and it's hard to see him mounting a title bid from a tough draw.

Kyle Edmund Britain's number one is on course to meet Djokovic in round three. He is capable of reaching the latter stages but this may be a year too soon for him.

Recommendations
M Cilic
3pts 15-2 general
J M del Potro
1pt each-way 22-1 Betfred


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Joe ChampionRacing Post Sport

Published on 30 June 2018inWimbledon

Last updated 20:23, 1 July 2018

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