Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Crewe +4 corners handicap
1pt 17-20 Hills

Crewe can lose a corner count by four or more – they did in their last two away games, in three of the last four and in four of the last six. They might do it again tomorrow in their League One game at Ipswich. But bookmakers may have overestimated the chance of that happening.

Back Crewe +4 on a corners handicap at 17-20 with William Hill. If Crewe lose the corner count by four or more the bet will fail, but if something else happens it will succeed.

This season has not started as well as Ipswich or Crewe would have hoped.

Ipswich took just three points from their first six games. Since then they have taken 21 points from 13 games, which is playoff form, but because of their slow start they are still in mid-table. Manager Paul Cook, in his first full season with Ipswich, would have hoped for more. Results could improve again.

Crewe are bottom of the table with just 12 points from 19 games. Under manager David Artell they won promotion from League Two and stayed in League One last season – finishing mid-table – but this season is proving more problematical.

Ipswich, a bigger club with better results and playing at home, are understandably favourites with bookmakers to score most goals. Result-related odds imply a 67 per cent chance of an Ipswich win, a 20 per cent chance of a draw and a 13 per cent chance of a Crewe win.

Ipswich should also be favourites to take most corners. But perhaps not such strong favourites to win the corners count by a large margin. Ordinarily in such a game the away team should not be as big as 17-20 to avoid losing the corners count by four or more. Crewe have perhaps fared less well in corners handicap markets than we might have anticipated from their results, but not by much.

Manchester United got it wrong but so did the rest of us

Manchester United have been criticised for their managerial appointments since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.

First there was David Moyes, then Louis van Gaal, then Jose Mourinho, then Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. None could deliver the Premier League. All of those appointments now are classified as failures. At the time, though, they were popular.

Moyes was a British manager who had taken Everton into the top third of the Premier League and kept them there on a much smaller budget. He was said to deserve a promotion.

Van Gaal had managed big clubs and won trophies. Mourinho had managed big clubs and won loads of trophies. He was said to be the best there was. Solskjaer was a legendary former United player.

Solskjaer’s appointment initially was temporary. Then United won ten of their next 12 Premier League games. As victory followed victory United were criticised for not giving Solskjaer a permanent contract. Then they did. Now they are said to have given him a permanent contract prematurely.

I never thought Mourinho should be the United manager, but that is not the same as thinking he would not win the Premier League.

Criticising United is one thing. For their fans it is a way of letting off steam. We were all wrong, though.

And that is hardly surprising. Rarely does anyone have a reliable idea of whether an appointment will be associated with the desired results. For betting, the lesson should be that when everyone says an appointment is good, or when everyone says an appointment is bad, they are as likely to be wrong as they are to be right.

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