US Open men's semi-finals predictions & tennis betting tips: Felix no pushover

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for the men's semi-finals at the US Open at Flushing Meadows in New York City.

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, from 8pm Friday

Best bets

Felix Auger-Aliassime to win at least a set v Daniil Medvedev
2pts 5-6 BoyleSports

Over 3.5 sets in Novak Djokovic v Alexander Zverev
2pts 8-15BoyleSports

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev has been navigating his way through the US Open singles draw with consummate ease, but the Russian may have to dig a little deeper to deny semi-final opponent Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Canadian ace Auger-Aliassime, who turned 21 last month, has a bit to find with second seed Medvedev, who is still without a singles success at Grand Slam level aged 25.

The Muscovite seems likely to put that right sooner than later, but this clash has added interest because the feeling is that it may not be long before the hugely talented Auger-Aliassime becomes a better player than Medvedev.

The pair have met only once, in Toronto in 2018, when Medvedev edged out his younger opponent 3-6 6-4 7-6, a result which suggests Auger-Aliassime may have a better chance of causing problems for the favourite in their second meeting than the betting suggests.

Auger-Aliassime has dropped four sets in the singles in this year's Big Apple major, while Medvedev's only lost set came in his last start in the quarter-finals against qualifier Botic van de Zandschulp.

That suggests that either Medvedev may be feeling the heat more as he goes deeper in the tournament, or that the level of opposition is rising. Either way, Auger-Aliassime is potentially a much more dangerous opponent than the admirable Van de Zandschulp which is another pointer to this semi-final possibly being closer than the oddsmakers anticipae.

Punters can definitely consider backing Auger-Aliassime, the Racing Post's solitary 100-1 each-way pre-tournament selection, to record a big upset. But given the Montreal native's potential, the chance to back Auger-Aliassime either to win at least a set or with a handicap start of 2.5 sets – which are the same market – should not be missed.

Novak Djokovic v Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev has not lost a match since Wimbledon but after such a long run of success and with opponent Novak Djokovic having seemingly steadied his ship once again, the German could be more vulnerable than usual against the top seed in their US Open semi-final rumble.

Zverev has dropped only one set in the tournament – to Jack Sock in round three – while Djokovic has won only one of his Flushing Meadows matches in straight sets.

The Serb has lost the opening set in his three latest starts – against Kei Nishikori, Jenson Brooksby and quarter-final victim Matteo Berrettini.

He was not too bothered about his slow starts against Nishikori and Brooksby but losing the opener against Berrettini was more of a concern, although the way Djokovic fought back to win 5-7 6-2 6-2 6-3 was testament to his quality.

As with Berrettini, Djokovic will be trying a lot harder to make a quicker start against Zverev, simply because the pair are tougher rivals than his early opponents.

But whichever way it pans out, Djokovic knows that aged 34 he will do well to silence the red-hot Zverev, who is ten years the world number one's junior, in straight sets.

Zverev denied Djokovic gold in the Tokyo Olympics in late July, so the calendar Grand Slam-seeker will feel he owes his opponent one. It's 6-3 to Djokovic in their personal series, with the current Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon champion having won four of their last five meetings.

Of course, such stats may mean little to Zverev, who knows he can beat arguably the greatest player in history. But while he had a slight element of surprise on his side in Japan, it's likely that Djokovic will manage his court time better over potentially five sets in New York than he did in the best of three in Tokyo.

It's 7-10 that Djokovic successfully concedes his opponent a handicap start of 3.5 games, but a price of 8-15 about the clash featuring at least four sets is by some way the most preferable punt.

Given the strides Zverev has made Djokovic is unlikely to defeat him in straight sets, while if the clash was to go in the outsider's favour he is highly unlikely to triumph in three sets given the fine form the favourite is showing.

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