Ruud v Alcaraz predictions & tennis betting tips for the US Open men's final

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for the US Open men's singles final between Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz.

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, 9pm Sunday

Best bets

Carlos Alcaraz
4pts 1-2 Hills

Carlos Alcaraz -2.5 games
2pts 4-6 Hills

Preview

Carlos Alcaraz has survived a trio of five-set matches in his last three US Open singles outings, yet if anything the 19-year-old looks to be getting stronger as a result of those tests.

There's a huge prize on the table when Alcaraz takes on Casper Ruud in the Flushing Meadows final on Sunday as the winner will not only collect a maiden Grand Slam singles trophy but also be ranked the world's number one player when the updates are released on Monday morning.

And while Ruud, who will be contesting his second Slam final of the year after succumbing to Rafael Nadal in the French Open in June, is getting better and better with experience, the 23-year-old Norwegian faces a teak-tough test trying to take down the best young player in men's tennis.

Alcaraz has been threatening to join the Slam champion ranks for some time. But while many observers thought it might happen first at Roland Garros, the plain truth is that Nadal is comfortably still the best operator on clay.

However, while Alcaraz looks sure to win a French Open before long, he's almost as adept on hard courts as he is on clay. And winning a US Open title as a teenager would be a clear mark of his greatness and genius.

Without wishing to over-dramatise, Alcaraz is already looking like a god among tennis mortals. And while Ruud has wisely made tweaks to his game, such as changing his grip on the backhand since Roland Garros this year in a move which has enabled him to hit flatter, more aggressive groundstrokes, that's unlikely to be anywhere near enough to stop Alcaraz on one of his favourite courts.

It matters little that Alcaraz failed to win a US Open Series tournament in the build-up to Flushing Meadows. He has shown in previous seasons how good and how strong he can be on American hard courts and his time looks to have come.

Ruud won an impressive 87 per cent of his net points in his four-set semi-final triumph over Karen Khachanov, but in some ways the fifth seed's only hope against Alcaraz is that the Murcian suddenly falls victim to fatigue after contesting a total of 15 sets in edging through his fourth-round, quarter-final and semi-final outings.

But, if anything, Alcaraz looked even better placed to respond to the serious and ultra-gallant threat posed by in-form Frances Tiafoe in the semis than he did in his last-16 and last-eight triumphs over Marin Cilic and Jannik Sinner. Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero, himself a former world number one, will be sure to have his charge spot-on for the title rumble.

Alcaraz looks to be going cheap in a number of markets. He looks overpriced to win the match and lift the trophy, while there is also value to be had in backing him to triumph either in straight sets, at 9-4, or in four sets, at 10-3. For those considering such plays, it could pay to place two-thirds of the stake on a 3-0 win with the other third on a 3-1 triumph.

Instead, however, with value apparent almost all around on the favourite, a handicap recommendation on Alcaraz to successfully concede Ruud a start of 2.5 games at 4-6 is a play which should cover both set-betting options.

Alcaraz has won both of his previous meetings with Ruud. The first was on clay in Marbella last year, when he eased to a 6-2 6-4 victory, and the second, in the final of the Miami Masters in March, saw him triumph 7-5 6-4.

Both players have moved on and made strides since March but Alcaraz, who won 74 per cent of his first-serve points against Tiafoe, may have improved slightly more than his New York City final opponent.

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