ATP Indian Wells predictions & tennis betting tips: Rublev on a roll

Free tennis tips, best bets and analysis for this week's events at ATP Indian Wells, which starts on Thursday.

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Already advised

Felix Auger-Aliassime
0.5pt each-way 22-1 bet365

Andrey Rublev
0.5pt each-way 28-1 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

Tournament preview

Novak Djokovic had initially been included in the Indian Wells draw but the 20-time Grand Slam champion was forced to withdraw late on Wednesday evening due to US coronavirus rules, and his absence has had a big shake-up on the betting.

The Serb missed the Australian Open in January after his entry visa was revoked, and it was unclear whether he would be permitted to travel to the United States.

But with Djokovic unvaccinated against Covid-19, the decision was effectively made and he has also been deemed as a non-runner for the upcoming Miami Open. The Serb is expected to make his return to the ATP Tour at the Monte Carlo Masters in April.

Despite the doubts, bookmakers had made Novak a clear favourite in the build-up, as a result of Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas all being drawn away from him in the top half.

Djokovic had the draw to go deep and his absence has seen plenty of betting action in the bottom half, with German fourth seed Alexander Zverev one of those cut from 17-2 to 5-1.

Support has also come for Andrey Rublev (28-1 into 14-1) and Felix Auger-Aliassime (20-1 from 25-1), who look the two most likely to capitalise on the Serb's withdrawal.

Zverev looks vulnerable, having last week picked up an eight-week suspended ban for losing his temper at the Mexican Open, so there could be room for a surprise finalist.

British number one Cameron Norrie is the defending champion so upsets can happen in California, and each-way plays on Rublev and Auger-Aliassime are still advised.

Rublev has turned into a winning machine and arrives in the States in confident mood after easing to a tenth career title in Dubai last time out.

Having previously claimed silverware in Marseille and reached the semi-finals in Rotterdam, the seventh seed has now lost only twice in 16 matches in 2022 and looks a danger to all.

One of those two defeats came against Auger-Aliassime, who went on to win his maiden trophy in Rotterdam, and the Canadian is another lively outsider providing he is over a back injury which ruled him out of Dubai.

The ninth seed could prosper given he is in line to meet Matteo Berrettini, who retired hurt in Acapulco last time out, in the fourth round. He has reached at least the quarter-final stage in his last three Grand Slams and is becoming a proven big-game player.

Nadal and Medvedev are in line to lock horns in a blockbuster semi-final, and the resurgent Spaniard would get the nod to come through that star-studded top half.

The 35-year-old remains unbeaten in 15 matches in 2022, a feat that features three title triumphs as well as two victories over the newly-crowned world number one.

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