Temperatures about to rise as Euro ties take on more meaning

It took 36 games spread over 13 days to eliminate just eight teams. The European Championship is a slow burner. The temperature should rise now.

Not only will one team go out in every game but there should be more interesting games. And more interesting games generally means a reduced likelihood of goals and an increased likelihood of draws.

During the group stage there were 2.6 goals per game. In knockout ties at previous tournaments there were 2.2 goals per game (excluding one unrepeated third-place playoff and all extra-time and penalty shootouts).

During the group stage at Euro 2020, 22 per cent of games were drawn. At previous tournaments 40 per cent of knockout ties were drawn and went into extra-time. Twenty-seven per cent were decided by a penalty shootout.

There are reasons, though, for thinking those knockout percentages might not be quite so high in future. Compare them with the World Cup, for example.

In the groups stages of the last six World Cups – 1998 to 2018 – there were 2.5 goals per game, similar to this European Championship. In normal time in the knockout rounds (ignoring the third-place playoffs) there were 2.1 goals per game, similar to past European Championships.

At the World Cups 36 per cent of knockout ties went to extra-time and 21 per cent were settled by a penalty shootout – a lot, but not as many as at previous European Championships. The knockout rounds of a World Cup are probably close in quality to the knockout rounds of a European Championship.

What happened at previous European Championships when scores were still level at the end of extra-time, the first of the tiebreak procedures?

Sixteen ties were decided by spot-kicks from 12 yards. One hundred and sixty-seven penalties were taken, of which 129 were scored – so 77 per cent went in and 23 per cent were missed (saved or off target).

The average number of penalties taken in a shootout was ten. The lowest was seven (when Turkey beat Croatia 3-1 in a 2008 quarter-final) and the highest was 18 (when Germany beat Italy 6-5 in a 2016 quarter-final).

An unusual feature of this group stage was that in two games out of three there was a home team. And many of the hosts were major football nations – England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain.

Only one country, though, will play at home in the knockout rounds. England take on Germany at Wembley in the round of 16, and if they qualify they will go to Rome for a quarter-final with the possibility of returning to Wembley for a semi-final and final. So although many countries have done a bit of hosting, Euro 2020 is most of all a tournament hosted by England.

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