Steve Palmer's Italian Open predictions, best bets, free golf tips, course guide

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Italian Open at Chervo Golf Club on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.30am on Thursday

Best bets

Adri Arnaus
3pts each-way 25-1 general
Wilco Nienaber
2.5pts each-way 28-1 Betfred
Guido Migliozzi
1.5pts each-way 60-1 bet365, Ladbrokes
Hurly Long
1pt each-way 225-1 bet365
Nacho Elvira
1pt each-way 125-1 Betfred, Betfair, Power

Matt Wallace goes off favourite for a European Tour event for the second consecutive week - an even shorter price than he was for the Scottish Championship - but his followers were tormented by events at Fairmont St Andrews and he is difficult to trust for the Italian Open.

Wallace could be described as unlucky to have teed up alongside an inspired Adrian Otaegui in Fife on Sunday - the Spaniard threw a 63 at him in the final group - but the Englishman greatly encouraged Otaegui by bogeying the opening hole and covering the easy front nine in level par.

Wallace went from three ahead (and a best-price 4-11) to one behind in those nine holes, then took an iron off the tee at the tenth and shoved it into junk. It was such a poor Sunday performance that Otaegui was handed a pressure-free environment to make merry. It seems that Wallace's 25-month victory drought has become more of a mental issue than was previously apparent and the short odds hold no appeal this week.

Martin Kaymer, winless since the 2014 US Open, is an even less attractive option at a slightly bigger price. Victor Perez is arguably the pick of them, but all the top five in the betting can be left alone on value grounds.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Adri Arnaus 25-1

Otaegui flew the Spanish flag proudly in Scotland on Sunday and his slightly younger compatriot Adri Arnaus can keep it high in Italy. Arnaus seems on the path to becoming a European Tour great and a maiden success at Chervo Golf Club is entirely feasible.

Arnaus quickly fell in love with Italy as an amateur on the Alps Tour in 2017. His first triumph came in the Villaverde Open in Udine, then he won the Alps Tour Grand Final in Verbania. That pair of wins in northern Italy laid the foundation for a strong professional career and he has returned to the same region this week a much more confident man.

Victory in the 2018 Challenge Tour Grand Final was followed by an impressive rookie campaign on the European Tour, including runner-up efforts in the Kenya Open, Andalucia Masters and Czech Masters. There has been a sense of inevitability about the breakthrough since then, underlined by third spot in the Dubai Desert Classic in January, and solid post-lockdown performances suggest a trophy is coming imminently.

Chervo, a long track with wide fairways and large greens, seems ideal terrain for Arnaus to show off his power-packed game. If his putter behaves, he can butcher the track, and this could be a week for a Spanish double with Jon Rahm, a childhood friend of Arnaus, a solid favourite on the PGA Tour.

Next best bet

Wilco Nienaber 28-1

Maybe a thrilling shootout between two of the most powerful players on the circuit is on the cards - sweet-swinging South African Wilco Nienaber should also find this layout to his liking. The 20-year-old, runner-up in a Sunshine Tour event in February, has rapidly established himself as one of the most promising youngsters in the sport.

Post-lockdown he has shown he is already good enough to contend for European Tour titles, finishing fourth in the English Championship and sixth in the Andalucia Masters. This lad appears to have it all, including an old head on young shoulders, and he could fall in love with Chervo.

Other selections

Guido Migliozzi 60-1

Hurly Long 225-1

Nacho Elvira 125-1

Guido Migliozzi was born an hour's drive from Brescia and the 23-year-old slugger typically raises his game on home turf. He was a prolific winner of events in Italy as a junior and an amateur, and finished seventh as a teen in the 2015 Abruzzo Open on his Alps Tour debut, a tournament he won two years later. Two more Alps Tour victories in Italy followed in 2018, before he won twice on the European Tour last season.

Migliozzi has played much better in mainland Europe than the UK post-lockdown, highlighted by sixth spot at Valderrama last month, and Chervo sets up wonderfully for him.

Complete a five-pronged attack with two outsiders. Hurly Long, a German youngster who graduated from Texas Tech before turning pro last year, won the 2019 Pro Golf Tour Order of Merit. And at the start of this month, his Challenge Tour career took off, with a playoff victory in the Italian Challenge Open in Agrate Conturbia. He has returned to northern Italy this week with self-belief growing.

Jose Maria Olazabal had been mentoring Otaegui prior to his Scottish Championship success and Nacho Elvira has also been getting words of wisdom passed down to him from the two-time Masters champion. Elvira is a four-time Challenge Tour victor who has suffered a series of near-misses on the main circuit, including third place in the 2016 Italian Open, and he could easily take a shine to Chervo and go close again.

Players to note

Wil Besseling
The Dutchman has been consistently solid post-lockdown, including third place in the Austrian Open and third again at Valderrama, and he could threaten the places in Italy.

Renato Paratore
The locals will be expecting big things from the British Masters champion, who returned to form with seventh place at Wentworth the week before last.

Chervo course guide

Course Chervo Golf Club, San Vigilio di Pozzolengo, Brescia, Italy
Prize money €1m (€161,925 to the winner)
Length 7,434 yards
Par 72
Field 114

When to bet By 6.30am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.30am on Thursday

Time difference Italy is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Scottish Championship 1 A Otaegui (66-1), 2 M Wallace (11-1), 3 A Rai (16-1), T4 G Porteous (275-1), C Paisley (100-1), 6 A Saddier (125-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview Chervo makes its European Tour debut this week, having been designed by Kurt Rossknecht and built in 2009. Set among rolling hills and fruit orchards, this charming venue is a stone's throw from Lake Garda. There are 36 holes to choose from and almost all are wide-open and exposed, providing generous targets off the tee. The bunkers are large but so are the greens - and the rough is light - so Tour professionals should find this resort course fairly straightforward. The two short par-fives on the front nine - the fourth and sixth - present eagle opportunities. The two par-fives on the back - the 11th and 18th - are more challenging. Two long par-threes - the 235-yard fifth and the 219-yard 14th - should provide a stiff test.

Story of last year Bernd Wiesberger edged Matthew Fitzpatrick by a shot at Olgiata Golf Club

Weather forecast Sunny and calm conditions are forecast for days one and four, but morning mist could hold up play on Friday morning, while there is the threat of a short thunderstorm on Saturday afternoon.

Type of player suited to the challenge As has been the case at many European Tour venues post-lockdown, the course appears a doddle for top professionals. It is fairly long, but the targets are generous and hardly any breeze is expected, so big-hitters with a hot putter should make merry.

Key attribute Power

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