Next Labour leader betting guide - odds and analysis of the main contenders

It was the election disaster of all disasters. Labour’s horrendous defeat last Thursday was the worst they have suffered in 35 years (and the fewest seats they have won since 1935) and it leaves the party – who will have spent 15 years in opposition by the time of the next scheduled election – facing a long road back to power.

Part of that road involves choosing a new leader, as Jeremy Corbyn steps aside following Labour’s defeat, and already the race is fiercely contested.

How does the leadership contest work?

The rules have been changed since Corbyn’s surprise win as a 100-1 rank outsider in 2015. Candidates must now get ten per cent of the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party) on their side to run. With the party now having 202 MPs in addition to ten MEPs (assuming that the nominations process is finished before January 31, the current Brexit date), there are 212 potential nominators. So each candidate would need least 22 parliamentarians to back them.

In addition to this, candidates must have nominations from either five per cent of the CLPs (constituency Labour parties, of which there are 647 across the country) or five per cent of the membership of at least three affiliated societies.

With 647 CLPs, 33 must nominate a candidate for them to make the ballot, whilst affiliates include unions which have always had strong relationships with Labour, such as Unite, Unison and the GMB.

This means that the maximum field is nine, but it’s unlikely that so many will end up making it through the nomination process.

Background

After the worst Labour performance in nearly a century, the party’s next leader will inherit a mammoth task. First and foremost, will be reconnecting with the areas that made up the so-called red wall – the north of England and Wales, without forgetting the Midlands. It’s for this reason that some are wary of electing another leader from a London seat, although Boris Johnson, an Old Etonian who uses Latin in metaphors, won the battle for the working class vote this time.

A strategy regarding appealing to towns and cities will be crucial, too - Labour lost a lot of support in those places but the route back to anywhere close to Number 10 can only be reached through gains outside of the cities.

After the Brexit vote, there was much criticism of Corbyn’s wavering on Labour's position and after Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn expressed no confidence in his leadership, Corbyn sacked him and there was an exodus from the Shadow Cabinet. The majority of the PLP won a no-confidence vote 172-40, but Corbyn was too strong for the one centrist challenger, Owen Smith, winning 313,201 or 61.8 per cent of the vote, with a majority of 119,980.

The membership Is said to have reduced since, with figures claiming that 90,000 to 150,000 members have left, and the majority of them would appear to be centrists. There’s still time for more moderate thinkers to join Labour and get a vote, but it’s running out fast and at the moment the left certainly have the advantage regarding membership.

Contenders

Rebecca Long-Bailey

The shadow business secretary has long been close to Corbyn and got a strong start when getting the endorsement of shadow chancellor John McDonnell on Sunday. Her selection for the two prime-time election debates was another significant vote of confidence. The most popular of the major contenders among the membership, she led the first Labour List poll of the race and received a major boost when her flatmate Angela Rayner agreed to run for deputy leader rather than the top job.

Sir Keir Starmer

One of the most impressive dispatch box performers in parliament, Starmer has a great deal of support among Labour’s Remain community and many MPs have clamoured for him to run, with ex-Labour MP Jenny Chapman saying she will be “sitting in Keir Starmer’s office until he agrees to stand”.

According to ITV’s political editor Robert Peston, a YouGov poll of Labour members carried out in the week of the general election showed that 68 per cent of Labour members said Starmer would be a very or fairly good leader, and only 12 per cent said he would be a poor leader – 34 per cent said the same of Long-Bailey in the same poll according to Peston.

He would have plenty of influential backing, and is arguably the most articulate contender in the field, although it is possible that his North London seat could count against him as the party seeks to reconnect with the Midlands and North, while he would be another male leader.

Lisa Nandy

The MP for Wigan has long been a passionate advocate for small towns and local communities, which puts her at the forefront of the conversation to be the next leader. Labour needs to win 123 seats at the next election to win an incredibly unlikely majority, and 104 are in towns rather than cities, according to the Fabian Society. Nandy’s depth of policies on towns put her at an immediate advantage.

A challenge for her could be winning over members – she was shadow secretary of state for energy and climate change from September 2015 until June 2016, but quit in protest of Corbyn at the beginning of his leadership and will have to work hard to convince some members. Her long term electoral appeal is a big factor in her favour.

Jess Phillips

One of the best-backed contenders in the aftermath of the exit poll, Phillips has all but confirmed she’s running and has targeted Facebook ads asking people to join the party. Known for being forthright and uncompromising, she has been well touted with non-party members but her standing with the membership is a big problem – she has long been one of Corbyn’s fiercest critics and will have to flood the membership with returning supporters given that most of those who have left over the past two years would be close to the centre.

Yvette Cooper

The former frontrunner is trying her hand again, after going up against against Corbyn in 2015. Since then she has impressed with her eviscerations of Theresa May and Boris Johnson in select committees and she has appealed to Remainers as a voice of fierce reason, although the argument appears to have been settled in favour of Leave.

Her experience – she has been an MP since 1997 has held all sorts pf positions, including chief secretary to the Treasury and secretary of state for work and pensions in Labour governments – is a big asset but the make-up of the membership looks harder for her to overcome than it did in 2015.

Clive Lewis

One of the most vocal MPs in the aftermath of the election, Lewis has spoken about how Labour needs to reach out to both Remainers and Leavers. The MP for Norwich South has a lot of credit with the membership, and there have already been calls for him to run. He probably stands a better chance of being able to convince people from the left of the party than most and he has the potential to shorten considerably over the coming weeks.

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