Betfred World Snooker Championship 2019: best bets to be Crucible champion

TV: BBC & Eurosport, starts 10am Saturday

Ronnie O'Sullivan is unsurprisingly all the rage for the Betfred World Championship given how well he has performed this season, but even though the world number one is still the likeliest victor his title price looks plenty short enough in a Crucible field featuring Judd Trump, Mark Selby and John Higgins, all of whom could pose him problems.

Neil Robertson is second favourite after a fine campaign but the Australian too looks skinny considering he has only one Sheffield title to his name.

Third favourite Judd Trump is playing well but while a world title would enable him to join the ranks of those who have won all three majors, he still has much to do to triumph at the hallowed arena.

Add to the mix the fact that Mark Selby has not been at his brilliant best of late and we have the ingredients for a wide-open 17-day marathon featuring the most talented bunch of qualifiers ever to grace the Crucible stage.

Humphries’ top tip
K Wilson 18-1
Defending champion Mark Williams is not even favourite to win his quarter of the draw – that honour goes to Kyren Wilson, and oddsmakers may be right to install the Warrior at the top of that pile.

Things have been a little quiet in recent weeks for Wilson, who posted back-to-back wins in the Paul Hunter Classic in August and 6 Red World Championship in September. He added the German Masters title to his CV in February, but now needs to step up in a major.

The fact that he lost to Mark Allen in last year’s Masters final led him to tears. Success clearly means a lot for Wilson and now a good draw has given him a decent opportunity to land the big one in Sheffield.

Modifying his cue action is understandably a slight concern for backers, but Wilson knows his game best. He should be good enough to deny the tenacious Scott Donaldson in his opener, but Barry Hawkins could be his first sizeable problem should the Londoner see off Li Hang.

Hawkins leads Wilson 11-7 in their personal series, but the Warrior has won four of their last five meetings. The Hawk played well in their latest clash in the Coral World Grand Prix at Cheltenham racecourse in February, but it will be disappointing if Wilson can’t regain the ascendancy in a longer match – their two previous major meetings both went the way of the Kettering ace.

Wilson could meet Williams, or possibly Joe Perry, in the last eight. Williams obviously remains a class act but Wilson has produced some scintillating displays against the Welsh top seed in the past and may now have enough to defeat the reigning champ.

Neil Robertson or John Higgins could prove an even tougher nut for Wilson to crack in the semi-finals, but the selection played a blinder to keep tabs on Higgins in a 17-13 last-four loss at the Crucible in 2018 and that form may not take much reversing.

Should the Warrior meet Robertson for the fourth time, all three of their past matches went to a deciding frame.

Given the tough nature of the bottom half of the draw, there’s no certainty that one of the triumvirate of O’Sullivan, Trump or Selby will be waiting in the final and that could, of course, make life easier should Wilson progress to the trophy match.

Next best
J Higgins to win second quarter 7-2
Neil Robertson is the name on many punters’ lists after a fine campaign which has seen him win titles in Riga, Cardiff and Beijing, but while he’s perfectly capable of adding to his 2010 Crucible crown he’s getting a little short at 11-2 second favourite and evens to win his quarter.

The Thunder from Down Under should find a way through his curtain-raiser against Michael Georgiou, but from then on things could get tougher. Luo Honghao possesses sufficient talent to possibly cause problems for Robbo should he overcome Shaun Murphy in his opener, but by far the biggest stumbling-block is John Higgins.

No titles this season have led many observers to state that Higgins has had a bad season. Far from it – the Scot has played some top-notch snooker.

It’s possible that a lack of silverware could be directly related to confidence levels and afford Mark Davis a chance of extending his extraordinary personal series lead over the Scot in the opening round.

But it will be a huge disappointment if Higgins’ game lets him down on the biggest stage of all considering time is running out in his bid to draw level with O’Sullivan on five Sheffield triumphs.

Higgins at his best should also be able to cope with Stuart Bingham or Graeme Dott in the last 16, but obviously Robertson would be a tougher proposition.

That could and would be an almighty quarter-final clash should it happen, but with the feeling that the 43-year-old is still good enough to defeat the Australian it’s worth having a bet on him reaching the semi-finals for the third year on the trot.

Other selections
Anthony McGill 400-1
Anthony McGill to win fourth quarter 125-1
The fourth quarter, being part of the bottom half of the draw, is devilishly difficult to unravel and, of course, it’s likely that one of O’Sullivan, Trump and Ding will venture into the one-table set-up.

However, purely from the point of view of prices, Anthony McGill is difficult to ignore at 400-1 outright and 125-1 to win his quarter.

The Glaswegian was pretty dire last year, and devoid of confidence, and a large part of him fighting back to pip Ryan Day in round one can be attributed to the Welshman’s temperament going walkabout.

McGill may not be back to his brilliant best yet, but there’s a lot more positivity to the shaven-headed Scot’s game and there have been hints that the heavy scoring is on the way back.

He’s a potential Crucible champion – his temperament is difficult to fault – and considering we’re getting 400-1 about a player who used to be 150-1 maximum the chance can be taken.

Others to note
Joe Perry The Gentleman eased through qualifying this year, dropping only five frames and trouncing Martin O’Donnell, who was flying in early season. Perry’s still a potential Crucible champion if the draw works in his favour, but time’s running out for the 44-year-old Fen Tiger.

Luca Brecel After starting the season well, Brecel’s form dipped around the middle of the campaign but he looks to be on the up after some promising performances. An opener against Gary Wilson is not easy and the Belgian is in the tougher half of the draw, but if he produces his A-game then he could be a threat to anyone.

Mark Allen Last year’s Masters hero is a better player now than he was this time last year and victories in the International Championship and Scottish Open should stand him in good stead. His defeats this season at the hands of Ronnie O’Sullivan seemed to knock his confidence, but despite being in the difficult section he’s still a big contender.

Recommendations
K Wilson
1pt each-way 18-1 Betway
J Higgins to win second quarter
3pts 7-2 general
A McGill
0.5pt each-way 400-1 bet365
A McGill to win fourth quarter
0.5pt 125-1 Sky Bet

First-round draw

top half: (1) M Williams v M Gould, (16) D Gilbert v J Perry, (9) B Hawkins v Li Hang, (8) K Wilson v S Donaldson, (5) J Higgins v M Davis, (12) S Bingham v G Dott, (13) S Murphy v Luo Honghao, (4) N Robertson v M Georgiou.

Bottom half: (3) M Selby v Zhao Xintong, (14) L Brecel v G Wilson, (11) J Lisowski v A Carter, (6) M Allen v Zhou Yuelong, (7) J Trump v T Un-Nooh, (10) Ding Junhui v A McGill, (15) S Maguire v Tian Pengfei, (2) R O’Sullivan v J Cahill.

First-round match start schedule

Saturday: M Williams v M Gould, L Brecel v G Wilson, N Robertson v M Georgiou, Ding Junhui v A McGill, S Maguire v T Pengfei; Sunday: J Higgins v M Davis, S Murphy v Luo Henghao; Monday: M Selby v Zhao Xintong, R O'Sullivan, D Gilbert v J Perry; Tuesday: S Bingham v G Dott, J Trump v T Un-Nooh, M Allen v Zhou Yuelong; Wednesday: B Hawkins v Li Hang, K Wilson v S Donaldson, J Lisowski v A Carter.

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