Italy v Ireland: : Six Nations predictions and free rugby tips

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Italy v Ireland in the Six Nations on Saturday

Where to watch

ITV & Virgin Media, 2.15pm Saturday

Best bets

Ireland to win by 21 to 30 points
1pt 16-5 Betfair, Paddy Power
J Lowe first tryscorer
1pt 15-2Hills

Match preview

After two defeats in the first two rounds of the Six Nations a trip to Italy offers Ireland the perfect chance to rediscover the scoring edge. But it could also be a hiding to nothing if they don’t win well enough and there will be plenty of pressure on coach Andy Farrell to deliver not just a win but a convincing performance.

Farrell praised the players’ courage and commitment and neither can be in doubt after two challenging contests.

They played more than an hour of their opening contest against Wales with 14 men after Peter O’Mahony’s red card, while injuries to Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton robbed them of their long-standing half-back partnership in their narrow loss to France.

Murray is still sidelined but Sexton is back and will be charged with galvanising a backline who have barely shown glimpses of their attacking potential.

Ireland’s stats after two rounds make grim reading for fans of slick attacking rugby. Eight linebreaks and six offloads in two matches puts them bottom of the table - France are top with 15 and 21. The upshot is just two tries - both scored by forwards - again, the lowest tally in the tournament.

Farrell has made seven changes to the side that lost to France, among them a first start of the year for winger Jordan Larmour who completes an exciting back three with James Lowe and Hugo Keenan.

Up front there’s a whole new front row of Dave Kilcoyne, Ronan Kelleher, Tadhg Furlong making the pack look faster and more mobile, and you get the feeling this is a team that could enjoy throwing the ball around in the Italian sunshine.

Realistically the betting on this match focuses on how big a margin Ireland will win by, and they have been set a handicap mark of 22 points.

Ireland have hit 50 points in four of the last five meetings between the two at all venues, while the Azzurri have failed to hit the 20-point mark in the last ten showdowns in all competitions, while they also registered fewer than 20 in seven of their eight games in 2020.

Italy coach Franco Smith is building a young squad and putting emphasis on playing their own game rather than reacting defensively to what is thrown at them.

That was seen when they scored the first try of the match against England at Twickenham, but they may find the battle-hardened Ireland defence harder to breach.

The handicap looks within Ireland’s reach, but while five of their nine tournament victories in Italy have come by more than 20 points, only one has exceeded the 30-point mark, so there may be more value in taking the price about a win by 21 to 30 points.

And it may be worth putting faith in that exciting Ireland back three to lead the way if the team can break away from their stodgy approach.

Leinster winger Lowe was on the end of the most promising move against France which ended in a try being ruled out by the TMO, and is a 15-2 shot to get on the scoresheet first.

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