South Africa v British & Irish Lions predictions and rugby union tips

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for the second Test between South Africa and the British & Irish Lions.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Action, 5pm Saturday

Best bets

Under 3.5 tries
2pts 10-11 Betfair, BoyleSports

South Africa +1.5
3pts 4-6 Paddy Power

Match preview

The Lions hold a 1-0 series lead going into Saturday's second Test in Cape Town, and if last week's opening encounter seemed a tense affair, that tension looks set to ramp up several notches in this rematch.

Second Tests have been notoriously tight in the last three tours, all of which involved Warren Gatland. Four years ago in New Zealand the Lions levelled things up with a 24-21 victory, while before that in Australia the tourists looked to be on their way to a series success, leading 15-9 with less than ten minutes to go, before the only try of the game sealed 16-15 Wallaby fightback.

And the last time the Lions were in South Africa, they let slip a 19-8 lead to be level at 25-25 with the clock in the red, before shipping a last-gasp penalty.

The game against Australia stands out as it was the only one of the three in which the Lions had won the first Test and appeared to be determined to grind out the right result any way they could.

And the mindset could be the same this time as although Gatland has made only three changes to the team, all point to a more conservative approach.

Scrum-half Ali Price and centre Elliot Daly were picked out as the two selections in the first Test who could help generate some flair and pace for the Lions, but both are benched.

A centre pairing of Robbie Henshaw and Scotland's Chris Harris looks far more defensively solid, while Conor Murray starts at nine after his kicking game, combined with Owen Farrell, proved key to the Lions' fightback when both men came on in the second half last week.

Losing the first Test of a series brings its own pressures, but an opening success can be just as onerous given the knowledge that one error can undo all the work that's gone before.

While last week's first Test was a gripping spectacle, it was also something of a scratchy game in which indiscipline played a big part.

The Springboks went about business as usual in the first half, pressing for territory, targeting the breakdown and forcing penalties to take a 12-3 half-time lead.

The Lions had done little up to that point but started the second period with purpose and determination, forcing their share of penalties and driving over for a try.

The pressure paid off and the Boks' discipline fell away as their fitness was tested in the final quarter, and it would be no surprise to see both teams take a similar approach from the off, and the upshot looks set to be a tight, attritional game.

There were just two tries in last week's match, and even though the Boks had two efforts ruled out by the TMO, it would be a surprise to see either team allow much room for attacking endeavour so going under the total-tries line looks wise.

The match betting is on a knife-edge and there are cases to be made for and against both sides. But given the way the Springboks were able to impose their dominance in the first half and created the better attacking opportunities, they can be supported with a 1.5-point start.

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