Worcester can sneak spoils in Sixways Premiership scrap with Northampton

Worcester v Northampton
BT Sport 1, 7.45pm Friday
Ulster v Munster
Premier Sports 1, 7.35pm Friday
Cardiff v Dragons
Premier Sports 2 & S4C, 7.35pm Friday

Worcester to edge out Northampton is the wager in a well-matched Premiership encounter at Sixways where the reward for success for either team is a leap up to sixth spot.

The sides have near-identical league records, with the hosting Warriors sitting directly above the Saints in ninth because of five more points scored. Both directors of rugby clearly see this clash as a good opportunity to contemplate a push for a place in next season's European Champions Cup rather than simply achieving survival in the seven-team scrap to avoid the drop.

Back, as expected, have come the outfits' available big guns who were rested for Challenge Cup games (the East Midlanders' didn't actually play because of heavy snow but had already travelled to Transylvania).

However, there is still an intriguing chess game in terms of selection. Home chief Alan Solomons keeps England back-row bolter Ted Hill among his replacements while away boss Chris Boyd has named a pack-heavy bench with two quality breakdown-area specialists in Heinrich Brussow and Jamie Gibson.

Solomons wants to add dynamism to Worcester's efforts in the later stages that five home wins on the spin in all competitions may have hidden. His opposite number Boyd is trying to address Northampton's shortage of destructive intensity, especially on the road, as the clock ticks on.

The Warriors beat fifth-placed Harlequins 20-13 last time out in the Premiership at Sixways while Saints have lost three of their four away league games and a Twickenham tussle with Leicester by less than 12 points.

The tactics and pattern of play at Sixways may change but, in terms of a likely outcome, the best bet is to go for more of the same.

In the Pro14 derbies, Ulster are taken to give up five points to Munster in Belfast and Cardiff centre Rey Lee-Lo looks cracking value at 11-4 to score a try against the visiting Dragons.

Munster mauled their hosts 64-7 at Thomond Park at the end of September but Ulster have won six of nine games in all competitions since then, including three by more than 14 points at the Kingspan Stadium.

Johann van Graan has made 13 changes to the Munster side beaten in a brutal Champions Cup clash in Castres on Saturday and that may affect both their attacking continuity and defensive structures.

Lee-Lo has scored six tries this season, including a league brace against champions Leinster and an angled drive and dive over against Saracens last Saturday in the Champions Cup, and all have come at the Arms Park.

The Dragons have conceded a try bonus-point in all of their away games apart from a Challenge Cup trip to Timisoara.

Recommendations
Worcester to win by one to 12 points
1pt 2-1 Betfair
Ulster -5
1pt 10-11 Betway
R Lee-Lo to score a try in Cardiff v Dragons
1pt 11-4 Betfair

Read every day for no-nonsense previews and expert sports betting tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport