Six Nations champions Ireland can push New Zealand all the way

Channel 4 & RTE2, 7pm Saturday

Two years ago Ireland could not follow up their first success over New Zealand in Chicago with a Dublin victory over the mighty All Blacks but that dream could be realised at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday.

Ireland at least look worth of support with a seven-point handicap start.

They have some key injuries to contend with, as well as the undoubted quality of the visitors, but they are the reigning Six Nations champions, securing the Grand Slam with a tough-as-teak performance at Twickenham.

Leinster are current European Champions Cup and Pro14 club kings and although it is not on the Kiwi scale yet, winning is becoming a habit for their players.

Ireland scrapped to a 2-1 series success down under in June, while it was never pretty to watch, and five of head coach Joe Schmidt's team, and two more on the bench, were on the 2017 British & Irish Lions tour of New Zealand that finished with a 1-1 Test series score.

Scrum-half Conor Murray and flanker Sean O'Brien, at the heart of the Lions' efforts, are sidelined but a purring Johnny Sexton can take the burden of play-calling away from Kieran Marmion and Luke McGrath.

In the back row, O'Brien's nous and the skills of original selection Dan Leavy will be missed but fellow Leinstermen Josh van der Flier and Jordi Murphy are equally versatile.

Hooker and skipper Rory Best and full-back Rob Kearney were tryscorers in November 2013 when New Zealand rallied from 19-0 down to win 24-22 in injury-time. Six more of that Ireland matchday squad are in this one.

How much the All Blacks truly understand about the talents of recent breakthrough players such as lock James Ryan or replacement outside back Jordan Larmour is open to conjecture.

If Sexton gets injured, as he did in New Zealand's 21-9 autumn 2016 Aviva success, then the game of back-up fly-half Joey Carbery looks to have come on in this campaign after a summer switch to Munster from Leinster.

On that occasion, New Zealand decided intense physicality was the best way to exact revenge for their mix-and-match side's Soldier Field defeat.

The All Blacks should be sharper for last Saturday's 16-15 win over England, but that encounter was abrasive in heavy conditions and mentally taxing throughout.

They may not be able to maintain high energy levels for long periods again whereas Ireland should be spot-on after their run-out against Argentina.

Clear New Zealand supremacy at the set-piece, from where so many devastating of their attacks start, is not guaranteed. Ireland's Devin Toner and Peter O'Mahony are masters at disrupting the line-out, where the Kiwis struggled in the first half at Twickenham, while Ireland's scrum is usually sure-footed.

The All Blacks also struggled to contain England's maul and Ireland's forward surges are even more synchronised.

It is unlikely to have escaped Schmidt's notice that South Africa enjoyed plenty of success attacking the All Blacks' centres in October's Rugby Championship finale in Pretoria when the Boks blasted out to a 30-13 lead but could not quite hold on.

New Zealand will also target the midfield as an avenue for breaking the gainline and that makes a bet on Damian McKenzie to claim a tenth Test try appeal. Full-back McKenzie scored New Zealand's try at Twickenham and is an elusive runner.

Recommendations
Ireland +7
1pt Evs Sky Bet
D McKenzie to score a try
1pt 5-2 bet365

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