New Zealand vs France: Nations Championship rugby union predictions, betting tips and odds

Where to watch 

New Zealand vs France
ITV1, 8.10am Saturday

Best bets 

New Zealand to win by one to 12 points
1pt 17-10 BoyleSports

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Predictions

It's a new era for New Zealand as Dave Rennie takes over for his first match as All Blacks head coach. They take on a France side who are missing some key players, as is so often the case in a July Test, and although the All Blacks are heavy favourites in Christchurch, showdowns between these nations often turn into intriguing battles.

This is the first match of the new Nations Championship, designed to give some structure and competitive edge to the traditional summer and autumn tour matches. What does not change is that the southern hemisphere nations will be playing their first Test of the year while the touring sides have just come to the end of a long season.

France staged its Top 14 final just last weekend so no players who took part in that feature on Saturday. That rules out the entire Toulouse contingent including half-backs Romain Ntamack and Antoine Dupont, although scrum-half Dupont has since been sidelined for the whole of July with an injury.

Les Bleus have plenty in reserve and will field a strong half-back pairing of Maxime Lucu and Mathieu Jalibert, both of European champions Bordeaux, while Damien Penaud and Theo Attissogbe are dangerous wingers, although there is no Louis Bielle-Biarrey.

New Zealand have made changes too as Ruben Love makes his first start at fly-half for the hosts - he has earned his five caps either off the bench or at full-back. Love is one of nine players from Super Rugby champions the Wellington Hurricanes and earns his spot ahead of Damian McKenzie, who starts at 15, and Beauden Barrett, who has been short of form this season.

France are Six Nations champions but conceded 50 points to Scotland and 46 to England in their last two games and they have suffered heavy defeats in New Zealand, including a 43-17 reverse in the middle Test of last summer's tour.

However, there were just four points in it the week before, while the All Blacks ended the series with a 29-19 victory so two of the three matches were close. And there was just one point in it when the teams last met in Paris in 2024, when France won their third successive match against New Zealand with a 30-29 success.

The handicap for Saturday's encounter opened in the mid-teens but has dropped to around ten points, and given the changes in both camps, backing a narrow New Zealand win looks the best bet.

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