Munster v Leinster predictions and rugby union tips: Tight away win expected

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Monday's United Rugby Championship fixtures.

Where to watch

ViaPlay Sports 1, 7.35pm Monday

Best bet

Leinster to win by one to 12 points
1pt 13-8 Coral, Ladbrokes

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Match preview

The safest bet in this huge inter-pro clash always used to be a narrow Leinster win. After all, Leinster have won nine of the last ten meetings, the one defeat coming in the post-season Rainbow Cup in 2021, and in the middle of that run was a sequence of five victories by no more than ten points.

But Leinster have stepped it up in the last two seasons, winning by 15, ten and 14 points. The most recent of those was in October when the league leaders ran out 27-13 winners in Dublin.

Since then Leinster have remained unbeaten in the league and are leading the charge in Europe, starting with a remarkable 42-10 win over Racing 92 in Paris and then a 57-0 demolition of Gloucester.

Munster have found it harder going but since their Dublin defeat they have gone down by a single point to Ulster before back-to-back league wins, a battling 18-13 reverse to European powerhouses Toulouse and a strong 17-6 success at Northampton.

That's a creditable run following a shaky start and at the heart of it has been defensive strength. Munster have not conceded more than 20 points in any of their last five games, shipping an average of 14.6, and they are sure to dig in hard against their fiercest rivals.

Leinster have named a strong team although Jonny Sexton remains sidelined - Ross Byrne starts at fly-half in his place. Rain throughout the day is forecast to clear by the evening but conditions are likely to be wet and all things point to a return to the kind of low-scoring physical battles we had become accustomed to.

Hosts Munster can be backed with a four-point start but better value can be found backing Leinster to win by no more than 12 points at odds-against.

It's derby day in Wales too as Dragons get a five-point start at home to Cardiff (2.15pm) while Ospreys are seven-point favourites at home to Scarlets (5.15pm).

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