Harlequins v Newcastle predictions & rugby union tips: Quins may not cut loose

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Harlequins v Newcastle Falcons in the Gallagher Premiership on Friday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 1, 7.45pm Friday

Best bets

Harlequins to win by 11 to 20 points
1pt 13-5 bet365

Match preview

The free-flowing rugby of last year might be missing from Harlequins’ repertoire right now but bookmakers reckon they could cut loose at home to a struggling Newcastle side.

Quins are 17-point favourites, a handicap they'd have been expected to cover easily this time 12 months ago when they were regularly hitting 40 and 50 points in games, putting 56 points on the Falcons the last time they visited the Stoop.

While they are still chalking up the wins, the Premiership champions had to come from behind to make it back-to-back victories at Worcester last Friday and their winning margins this season haven't been quite as big with Quins' last four league successes coming by nine points or fewer.

They’ll expect to be more comfortable victors over a Newcastle side who have lost their last three league away matches by at least 16 points and have not registered a Premiership win since November.

The Falcons are stuck in a rut and their depleted pack is likely to be overpowered by a Harlequins’ forward contingent which features Test props Joe Marler and Wilco Louw.

The backs are a classy bunch too with Louis Lynagh and Tommy Allan recalled, but expecting them to flick a switch and run riot may be naive.

Harlequins won September's reverse fixture by just six points and while they can better that winning margin, it might prove wise for punters to cover themselves in case they fall short of the handicap mark.

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