Australia v England predictions: England's powerful forwards won't lie down

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for Australia v England in Perth on Saturday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Action, 10.55am Saturday

Best bet

England +3.5
4pts 4-6 Betfair, Paddy Power

Danny Care to score a try
1pt 3-1 bet365, Betfred

Match preview

After a tough year in the spotlight it would be the strangest kind of home comfort for England head coach Eddie Jones if he can lead his side to a series win in Australia and put a poor Six Nations campaign behind him. And he can certainly take an important step in the right direction in Saturday's opening clash in Perth.

Wallabies coach David Rennie has gone out of his way to pick a strong physical pack to counter England’s forward power and put an emphasis on set-piece and mauling as he aims to get the better of the old enemy.

But despite a few missing names in their line-up, England still look to have an edge up front and Australia's desire to take on England up front may count against them, as if they fall short their game-plan could be over.

Aussie Jones took over after England flopped at the 2015 World Cup, their pool-stage exit confirmed with a Twickenham defeat to the Wallabies, and in his first year in charge he led his team to a Grand Slam and a 3-0 series clean sweep down under.

Under Jones England have won eight out of eight Tests against Australia but they are underdogs for the first Test of three after winning just two games in the Six Nations and enduring a heavy defeat to the Barbarians last month.

Jones has been criticised for his team selection over the years and has had his hand forced to some extent in this series, but he looks to have a line-up ready to overpower the hosts.

Among those missing from the England pack are prop Kyle Sinckler and number eights Alex Dombrandt and Sam Simmonds, but at least in that second position Jones has the option of going back to long-term selection Billy Vunipola, who just happens to be in the form of his life.

And another player returning to the frontline after a spell in the wilderness is scrum-half Danny Care, who has also been in outstanding form for Harlequins and links up with clubmate Marcus Smith in the half-backs to give England some real spark behind their powerful pack.

Owen Farrell is reportedly hurt at being replaced as captain by Courtney Lawes and lines up at 12, with Jack Nowell and Joe Cokanasiga on the wings while Jonny May is sidelined following a positive Covid test.

Australia have gone with a side heavy on Brumbies players, acknowledging the strength of the Canberra outfit’s forward game in Super Rugby. Among the selection surprises is a debut for Brumbies lock Cadeyrn Neville at the age of 33. Rennie has emphasised a need for bulk in the pack to slow England’s ball and defend strongly, but it seems a negative approach when he could be looking at his own team’s strengths.

Australia are favourites but their odds have drifted a little and early value-seekers may have been wise to see just how wide open this game is. It’s a tantalising clash in which no result would come as a huge shock but England are worth backing with a start, although shorter odds about a handicap of more than a single penalty are worth settling for.

And if the game is based on set-piece and mauling, sniping supremo Care has to be worth a dig at 3-1 to get on the scoresheet. He is so sharp and a run from one of his trademark tap penalties can’t be ruled out.

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