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Roscommon may pay for missing their big chance

Mayo can prove too strong in replay

Cillian O’Connor will be missing from the Mayo side as he serves a suspension for his red card picked up against Galway
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All-Ireland SFC quarter-final replay
RTE2 & Premier Sports, 2pm Monday

Roscommon had their chance to beat Mayo last Sunday and they didn't take it. They may come to regret that in Monday's All-Ireland SFC quarter-final replay at Croke Park.

Mayo rarely do things the easy way and this was the case in the first match when they conceded two early goals. 

Mayo have played six games already this year, with two of these going to extra-time, and it looked as though that was taking its toll in the early stages when they appeared lacklustre around the field.

The eight-day gap will have given them time to regroup and get back to form before facing a Roscommon team who might have missed their best chance.

Roscommon were massive underdogs going into the first game, and underdogs often have to pay for not finishing off a top team when they get a chance.

Cillian O’Connor was disappointing by his standards last week, kicking three late wides and dropping short a 50-metre free, but the Ballintubber man was in scintillating form throughout the qualifiers and should bounce back to his best.

He scored ten points in their extra-time win over Cork and, along with Aidan O’Shea, can rediscover the form that carried them through the back-door.

Lee Keegan was the catalyst for the Mayo recovery last week, scoring an outstanding individual goal to recover the early two-goal deficit, and he finished as Mayo’s top scorer with 1-3 on the board from play.

The 2016 Footballer of the Year marshalled midfielder Enda Smith throughout the first half and took his chances to get forward when they came.

Roscommon had to move Smith to the edge of the square in the second half to nullify Keegan’s threat but they can’t afford to do this for 70 minutes and Keegan should get forward at every opportunity and take his scores when he does.

Both teams have shown throughout the championship that they are able to do the business in front of goal, so expect goals to be on the cards again.

Roscommon have scored two goals in each of their three championship games, while Mayo have scored six in eight games, and the trend is likely to continue with both teams having plenty of chances in front of goal.

Diarmuid and Ciaran Murtagh have been in deadly form this season, notching 1-4 between them in the first game before being withdrawn late in the second half.

The Connacht champions put everything into their provincial campaign, and the effects of this were shown in the second half last week when a late Donie Smith free forced a replay.

It will take a huge effort from the Rossies to reach those levels again, and it may be beyond them to surpass a Mayo team with such experience on the big stage.

Recommendations
Mayo -2
3pts 10-11 Paddy Power
L Keegan to score over 1.5 points
1pt 11-10 Paddy Power
Over 2.5 goals
1pt 6-4 BoyleSports

The eight-day gap will have given them time to regroup before facing a Roscommon team who might have missed their best chance
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