Real could thrive as Bayern go for broke
Defending champions set to progress
Champions League quarter-final second leg
BT Sport 3, 7.45pm Tuesday
Defending champions Real Madrid put themselves in charge of this Champions League quarter-final with a win in Munich last week and they can ease into the last four by completing the double over Bayern.
Arturo Vidal’s missed penalty handed Real a sizeable advantage in the Allianz Arena and man of the match was keeper Manuel Neuer, who kept the German champs in the tie.
Even though they were the away team, Real unloaded 23 efforts in the first leg, 12 on target, and as Casemiro pointed out in the press conference at the Bernabeu on Monday, the Madrid superpowers aren’t going to change their style now.
So expect chances and expect goals. Bookmakers clearly do, with odds of 2-5 about both teams scoring. Both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals is a 6-10 chance with Coral while over 3.5 goals is no better than an 11-10 shot. It may also pay to expect a home win.
Bayern have got to chuck everything at Zinedine Zidane’s men, who won’t be sitting back. Neither defence is at its strongest, Bayern’s could be more brittle than ever if Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng aren’t fully fit, and it’s hard to see anything other than a goal feast.
Only one of Real’s last 25 matches has not copped for over 2.5 goal backers and even when they rested almost their entire team – as Zidane did in Gijon on Saturday – they scored three times in a 3-2 win to stay top of La Liga.
It’s a difficult task for Bayern, managed by Carlo Ancelotti, who led Real to Champions League glory in 2013-14.
Ancelotti knows his side will have to play much better than they did in Saturday’s 0-0 draw at Leverkusen. He made five changes from the side beaten by Real but they were hugely disappointing, especially up against ten men for the last half hour.
More encouraging was their first-half performance against Real in the first leg in which they were excellent. That they couldn’t sustain that level – at home – must have been frustrating because chances to dominate in Spain are going to be less frequent.
With 38-goal Robert Lewandowski back in attack they do at least pose a threat to Keylor Navas’s goal and the Pole is no bigger than
6-5 to score at any time.
Real are without Gareth Bale though Isco did his prospects of replacing the Welshman the world of good with two goals at Sporting at the weekend and Zidane is spoiled for choice in attack.
It’s almost a calendar year since Real last failed to score in a game – the 0-0 draw at Manchester City in this competition – and they’ve scored two goals or more in 14 of their last 15 home games in Europe and La Liga.
2pts 7-5 general
Gareth Bale (calf) is out. Centre-backs Pepe and Raphael Varane are also absentees.
Centre-back Javi Martinez is suspended so Bayern need Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng to shake off knocks. Robert Lewandowski (shoulder) is fit.
Real Madrid have scored in 54 successive matches.