PartialLogo
Golf tips

Racing Post's BMW Championship golf betting tips and tournament preview

Plus, Caves Valley Golf Club course guide

Patrick Cantlay has been a very consistent performer Stateside this year
Patrick Cantlay has been a very consistent performer Stateside this yearCredit: Icon Sportswire

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in the FedEx Cup playoffs on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5.30pm Thursday

Best bets

Patrick Cantlay
2pts each-way 25-1 Betfred
Corey Conners
1.5pts each-way 40-1 Betfred
Viktor Hovland
1pt each-way 35-1bet365
Keegan Bradley
1pt each-way 90-1bet365

Click here to add Ian Wilkerson's selections to your bet365 bet slip


Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE


It has been no ordinary week in the FedEx Cup playoffs and not just because Tony Finau finally got over the finishing line after countless near misses to claim his first title since the 2016 Puerto Rico Open.

The final round at The Northern Trust was postponed for 24 hours so players could keep away from Hurricane Henri. Preparations for the second event of the playoffs, the BMW Championship where 69 of the top 70 players will be battling it out for 30 places at next week’s Tour Championship, will have been minimal for many – Patrick Reed is the only absentee after he was hospitalised with pneumonia last week.

Lee Westwood has suggested that those who missed the cut at Liberty National would be at an advantage this week. And the fact few will have seen the test that lies in wait at Caves Valley in Baltimore adds up to a tricky dilemma for punters as the game's elite head to Maryland.

Wilkerson's top tip

Patrick Cantlay 25-1

Jon Rahm won the BMW Championship last year when it was played at Olympia Fields in Illinois and he will have been disappointed to have fallen short last week as he finished third.

The Spaniard is hugely consistent but his US Open win has been his only success since that 2020 BMW triumph and while punters should be assured of a run for their money - his finish at Liberty National was his 14th top ten in that time - he is not quite getting the job done.

This week's test, where some decent length off the tee should enable players to avoid plenty of trouble, would seem to play to his strengths, and he could easily triumph, but it might be a case of looking a little further down the list at an unfamiliar venue.

There are questions about many at the top of the betting. Dustin Johnson continues to look a little out of sorts and missed the cut last week, while Open champion Collin Morikawa also had the weekend off after suffering with a pinched nerve in his neck.

But one player who could make a big impression is the man who pipped Morikawa to glory at the Memorial earlier in the year, Patrick Cantlay.

The 29-year-old from Long Beach is fourth in the FedEx standings so his place in next week's climax is a given, but he played solidly at Liberty National to claim a share of 11th spot and he can build on that in Maryland.

The Zozo Championship winner has shot more than 71 in just one of his last 20 rounds in America and the only occasion in which he has missed the cut in his last seven tournaments was at The Open at Royal St George's. He finished in the top 25 in each of the other six efforts.

A good performance could boost his chances of entering Steve Stricker's plans for the American team to face Europe in next month's Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits and the fact he will again be testing himself on bentgrass greens, similar to those he played on at the Memorial, should boost his confidence.

This should be the sort of tee-to-green test he relishes and he is capable of putting up a bold show.

Next best bet

Corey Conners 40-1

Another player who had a decent week in New Jersey but may have slipped under radar is Canada's Corey Conners.

He finished eighth at Liberty National and that strong performance came after he was 15th at The Open and 13th at the Olympics so he deserves to be considered among elite company.

Conners is ranked seventh in strokes-gained off the tee this season and was the fifth-best player from tee to green last week, when his effort included a third round of 62 that must have done wonders for his confidence.

On an unfamiliar track that would appear to play to his strengths, he should put in a solid show that cements his place in next week's showdown at East Lake.

Other selections

Victor Hovland 35-1

Keegan Bradley 90-1

Viktor Hovland had a disastrous Monday at The Northern Trust, but there were signs in the first three rounds that his game is in decent shape.

The Norwegian had a couple of horror shows in his opening nine holes of the final round and, having gone out in 42, he compounded his misery by breaking his putter, which meant he had to play the second half using a wedge on the greens.

However, he maintains the driving ability to avoid most of the trouble awaiting at Caves Valley and opening efforts of 68, 67 and 65 last week shows he has the ability, and is in the form, to challenge this week.

Former US PGA champion Keegan Bradley is two places outside the top 30, so a strong challenge seems likely.

He saw the Valspar Championship slip from his grasp in May but Bradley bounced back from a four-week break with a tie for 11th at The Northern Trust.

Four rounds in the 60s were encouraging and he could go well at a decent price.

Players to note

Bryson DeChambeau
There were signs that the former US Open champion was finally getting to grips with his driver last week and this is the sort of track where his power could prove a big asset, but punters always have to consider whether he is in the right frame of mind.

Justin Thomas
It has been a rocky road for the man from Kentucky since he won the Players Championship, but his tie for fourth at the Liberty National suggests another triumph may not be too far away and Caves Valley could be a course that suits him well.

Louis Oosthuizen
The South African heads to Maryland rested having swerved last week's tournament, so he could go well fresh, but the former Open champion tends to fall agonisingly short when competing in the States.

Caves Valley course guide

Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland hosts the BMW Championship this week
Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland hosts the BMW Championship this weekCredit: Getty Images

Course Caves Valley Golf Club, Owings Mills, Baltimore, Maryland

Prize money $9.5million ($1.71million to winner)

Length 7,542 yards Par 72 Field 69

When to bet By 2.40pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf at 5.30pm

Time difference Baltimore is five hours behind the UK & Ireland

Last week - The Northern Trust 1 T Finau 60-1, 2 C Smith 40-1, 3 J Rahm 10-1, 4 A Noren 160-1, T Hoge 500-1, J Thomas 25-1, 7 E van Rooyen 225-1.

Course overview This will be the first PGA Tour visit to Caves Valley for the second tournament in the FedEx playoffs series, where the field will be whittled down from 69 to 30 for next week's Tour Championship.

The Tom Fazio design has, however, hosted the 2002 US Senior Open, in which Don Pooley beat Tom Watson after a five-hole playoff, and the Senior Players Championship in 2017, which was won by Scott McCarron.

This exclusive club takes in rolling hills, pastures, woods and wetlands and is characterised by tight fairways and narrow greens, many of which are multi-tiered.

Length off the tee should ensure short approach shots but fairway bunkers lie in wait for the errant. Wind could also be a factor in the closing holes, which include a par-five 16th that measures the best part of 600 yards.

Players will putt on bentgrass greens and the dramatic elevation changes could play havoc with yardage calculations. There is the promise that the rough will be thick as well.

Story of last year Dustin Johnson holed a 43-foot putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff with Jon Rahm but the Spaniard held firm to win in extra-time at Olympia Fields.

Weather forecast Saturday looks the most likely day for rain but it should be moderate. Winds shouldn't be too strong but it should be hot with temperatures set to peak at around 33C

Type of player suited to the challenge Long, straight hitters should be able to avoid many of the potential traps to the side of the fairways, which will provide the opportunity to threaten the pins from close range.

Key attribute Power


MORE FREE BETS


Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Ian WilkersonRacing Post Sport

Published on 24 August 2021inGolf tips

Last updated 09:28, 25 August 2021

iconCopy