Leeds v Crystal Palace predictions: Hosts good value to claim a vital victory

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Leeds United v Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Tuesday.

Where to watch

Amazon Prime Video, 8.15pm Tuesday

Best bet

Leeds
1pt 29-20 Betfred, Coral, Hills

Team news

Leeds
Patrick Bamford and Luke Ayling are closing in on a return but won't be fit in time for this, Robin Koch is also set to miss out. Kalvin Phillips was withdrawn at half-time against Brighton for tactical reasons and is available for this game.

Crystal Palace
Joachim Andersen will not travel after sustaining a groin injury, James McArthur and Nathan Ferguson also look set to miss out while Eberechi Eze may be eased back into first-team football after coming off the bench against Aston Villa.

Match preview

Injuries have derailed Leeds’s second season back in the top flight of English football but they can pick up a vital home win against Crystal Palace to push away from the relegation zone.

The injury to Patrick Bamford has been particularly difficult for the side to deal with as they have struggled to replace the striker who netted 17 goals last season.

Only Tottenham, Norwich and Southampton have scored fewer than Leeds’s tally of 12 this campaign, but it hasn’t been for the want of trying as only the top three in the league have had more shots than Marcelo Bielsa’s team.

The Whites have fallen short of their expected-goals total by more than four, which indicates that they are perhaps due to start seeing more returns from the fruits of their labour.

There have been some bright spots for Leeds, with Raphinha coming into his own this season and providing much of the creativity.

Illan Meslier has also proven why he is considered one of the best young goalkeepers in world football and fellow youngster Joe Gelhardt looks to have been a bargain when plucked from Wigan last summer.

This Leeds team has the fourth-lowest average age of any side in the league and their fluctuations in form can be put down in part to their inexperience at this level.

Opponents Crystal Palace saw their seven game unbeaten streak ended in a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Aston Villa on Saturday.

The Eagles have certainly come on leaps and bounds under Patrick Vieira, particularly after a summer in which so much of the squad was turned over. Palace bought well and Vieira has done a good job of implementing a more attacking brand of football after Roy Hodgson’s departure.

The south London club have struggled to turn draws into wins, however, with a league-high seven stalemates this season.

Vieira’s side have also won just once in six attempts on the road this campaign and have been caught out from set pieces, conceding a league-high 65 shots from such situations, according to Stats Perform.

Though the narrative of each of these side’s seasons has been one of Palace success and Leeds failure, just four points separate them and in such a tight betting heat, it may be worth siding with the home team to sneak their third win of the season.

Key stat

Crystal Palace have conceded 13 times in six away games this season.

Inside info

Leeds

Penalty taker Rodrigo
Free-kick wizard Raphinha
Set-piece aerial threat Liam Cooper
Card magnet Kalvin Phillips

Crystal Palace

Penalty taker Wilfried Zaha/Luka Milivojevic
Free-kick wizardConor Gallagher
Set-piece aerial threatChristian Benteke
Card magnetJoel Ward

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