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Brexit vote: PM Theresa May's EU deal 20-1 to get through Commons

Odds predict crushing defeat for Tory leader | latest betting

MPs are likely to vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal for a third time this week
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The meaningful vote on PM Theresa May's Brexit deal is a 20-1 shot to be approved by MPs tonight and no bigger than 1-100 to fail.

Bookmakers believe Mrs May's gamble on delaying the vote since before Christmas will flop.

The favourite in the market on the number of MPs voting in favour at the first attempt was 200-249. A total of 318 votes will be needed for the vote to be passed.

Spread betting company Sporting Index set their line on the number of Aye votes at 221-229.


More on Brexit

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Brexit proposals given positive hearing but issue remains a 'real problem'

Gay Kelleway counters Brexit fears by setting up satellite operation in France

Irish minister highlights Brexit threat to Cheltenham Festival


The likely defeat could trigger a wide variety of scenarios including the revoking of Article 50 - the notice of intention to withdraw from the EU - the announcement of a second referendum, leaving the EU without a deal or a general election.

Paddy Power are betting on Article 50 being revoked before March 30 and offer 4-1 yes and 1-8 no.

A second EU referendum – available to back at a best-priced 13-8 – has shortened in price today, although the odds about no further vote taking place are no bigger than 4-7.

A 2019 general election, favoured by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, is a more likely scenario with a nationwide vote priced up at 11-8.

Should that take place a tight contest is expected with Labour 11-10 to win most seats and the Conservatives 10-11.

Paddy Power have also opened a market on which commodity could be subject to rationing first in 2019, with fuel the 7-1 favourite. Milk is 11-1, with olive oil and bread both 16-1, cheese 18-1 and coffee and butter at 20-1.


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The favourite in the market on the number of MPs voting in favour at the first attempt is 200-249
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