Paris St-Germain v Bayern Munich predictions: More fireworks expected

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Paris St-Germain v Bayern Munich in the Champions League quarter-final second leg on Tuesday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 3, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Bayern Munich to win & both teams to score
2pts 9-4 Hills

Team news

Paris St-Germain
Marquinhos and Juan Bernat are set to miss out but Marco Verratti and Alessandro Florenzi are back. Keylor Navas, Mauro Icardi and Layvin Kurzawa are slight doubts.

Bayern Munich
Robert Lewandowski, Douglas Costa, Serge Gnabry and Corentin Tolisso are sidelined. Jerome Boateng and Kingsley Coman should overcome knocks.

Match preview

Paris St-Germain beat Bayern Munich 3-2 in a thrilling Champions League quarter-final first leg at the Allianz Arena last week and another cracker is in prospect in the return fixture.

Bookmakers, fans and pundits had expected a high-scoring encounter when the clubs met in last season's final but a second-half goal from Bayern's Kingsley Coman proved decisive.

The first leg of their quarter-final clash certainly lived up to the hype, however, as PSG raced into a 2-0 lead before being pegged back by goals from Eric Choupo-Moting and Thomas Muller.

Kylian Mbappe, who had scored a hat-trick in PSG's 4-1 last-16 win over Barcelona at Camp Nou, then claimed his second of the night in Munich and Mauricio Pochettino's men are 4-11 to advance to the semi-finals.

The continued absence of Bayern's injured goal machine Robert Lewandowski is undoubtedly a boost to the Parisians' chances of knocking out the holders although they are set to be without key centre-back Marquinhos.

Bayern certainly missed their Polish striker's clinical finishing in a first-leg defeat in which they had 64 per cent of possession and 31 attempts on goal to PSG's six.

The presence of Choupo-Moting, who scored five goals in 30 league appearances for Stoke before earning surprise moves to PSG in 2018 and Bayern last year, is unlikely to concern the home defence as much as Lewandowski would.

But Bayern can take heart from the sheer number of chances they created in the first leg, as well as from PSG's shaky display in their last-16 second leg against Barca.

The game finished 1-1, with PSG going through 5-2 on aggregate, but that scoreline does not tell the tale of a blistering first-half performance from Barcelona.

PSG goalkeeper Keylor Navas had to make eight saves in the first 45 minutes, including one from a Lionel Messi penalty, while the hosts were grateful for an early penalty awarded after a VAR check and converted by Mbappe.

The tempo of Barcelona's play in that first half should encourage Bayern to blast out of the blocks themselves and even without Lewandowski they have the players to put PSG under pressure.

The Pole scored only once in Bayern's famous 8-2 quarter-final rout of Barca last season when they also beat Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge and thumped Tottenham 7-2 away from home in the group stage.

Despite a rash of injuries they scored four times in the first 47 minutes away to Lazio in the last 16 and they are worthy favourites to win the second leg in Paris.

Better value, however, may be to back a Bayern win with both teams scoring. Hansi Flick's side have kept just two clean sheets in nine Champions League games this season, at home to Atletico Madrid and Lokomotiv Moscow, and keeping Mbappe and Neymar quiet for 90 minutes is a tough task for a team trying to overturn a deficit.

Key stat

Bayern Munich have scored 44 goals in their last 11 Champions League games away from the Allianz Arena.

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