Jack Ogalbe: The numbers behind Tottenham and Man Utd's contrasting domestic and European form

The next two Thursdays are arguably the most important days of the entire season for Tottenham and Manchester United.

Spurs host Norwegian outsiders Bodo/Glimt in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final this week before heading to the Arctic Circle, while United face Athletic Bilbao, with the first leg taking place at San Mames, the venue for this season's final on May 21.

With both domestic cups gone and the pair on course for their worst Premier League finishes in decades, managers Ange Postecoglou and Ruben Amorim have prioritised winning on the continent – and why not? 

Winning the Europa League provides a route into the Champions League, where both clubs ultimately want to be, and it could even keep Postecoglou in a job at Spurs. If not, it would give either the Aussie's successor or Amorim a better chance in their summer recruitment drive.

Postecoglou set himself up for a fall when he told reporters that "I always win something in my second year" after September's 1-0 north London derby defeat. Appointed in 2023, the Australian was unbeaten in his first ten games in the Spurs dugout but teams have quickly worked out his tactics. Postecoglou's first defeat was a chaotic 4-1 home loss to Chelsea, when he persisted with a ludicrously high defensive line despite Tottenham being reduced to nine men. Such bold tactics have become a staple at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Europa League semi-final dates and fixtures

*All games to kick off at 8pm BST

Admiration for sticking to his principles has since turned to bewilderment and his predictability has contributed to Spurs losing 31 of his 72 league games. Tottenham are on course for their first bottom-half finish since the 2007-08 season, when they at least won the EFL Cup, and the Lilywhites' season provides an interesting parallel with where United were a year ago. 

The Red Devils looked set to sack Erik ten Hag but instead handed the Dutchman a contract extension after winning the FA Cup. That followed EFL Cup glory in Ten Hag's first season but the United board had decided enough was enough by October and he departed with the club 14th in the table.

Amorim is another coach committed to his beliefs but his players are yet to settle in his favoured 3-4-3 and Sunday's 1-1 draw at Bournemouth was their fifth league game in a row without a victory. However, they have overcome Real Sociedad and Lyon in their last two European ties, the second leg of the latter triumph being especially impressive.

After drawing 2-2 in France, United went from 2-0 up to 4-2 down at Old Trafford before roaring back for a 5-4 victory in extra-time to maintain their unbeaten home record in this season's Europa League.

Similarly, Tottenham beat 2021-22 winners Eintracht Frankfurt in the quarter-finals but their 1-0 win in Germany was their solitary clean sheet in 13. 

They have lost their last three in the league and were pummeled 5-1 at champions Liverpool on Sunday as Postecoglou made eight changes from the previous Monday's 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest.

So how have United and Spurs got to within the brink of a European final despite floundering at home?

Well, the difference in quality between the Premier League and Europa League is best advertised in both penalty areas. Spurs concede fewer goals per game in Europe, while United have scored over a goal more on average.

Physicality has also been an issue domestically and each makes significantly more fouls per game in Europe, with United committing over twice as many infringements. 

The Premier League is still the most physical league in the world, with far higher tackle rates in the middle and attacking thirds when compared to Europe's other top domestic leagues, while teams also tend to have more touches in their defensive and attacking sections as they build up more slowly. 

Both Postecoglou and Amorim like to quickly transition from defence to attack. Less intensity gives them a greater chance to do this in Europe, and this is reflected in Tottenham's defensive record because they are under less pressure while United's attacking output has effectively been doubled due to having more space to create.

Europa League glory is all that matters now. Bodo/Glimt and Bilbao will provide stiff opposition but Postecoglou and Amorim know they are beatable. Just don't expect any potential all-English final to be a classic.

Read more . . .

Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United predictions, betting tips and odds: Red Devils ripe for further despair 

Tottenham vs Bodo/Glimt predictions, betting tips and odds: Spurs set for high-scoring success 

Djurgarden vs Chelsea predictions, betting tips and odds: Underdogs may wilt in second half 

Real Betis vs Fiorentina predictions, betting tips and odds: Exciting Betis backed for first-leg advantage 

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