Stevenage may not be totally bossed around by Dons

Milton Keynes Dons are the most likely winners of their Sky Bet League Two game at Stevenage but they might not dominate play as much as bet365 anticipate.

Stevenage could fare better than bet365 expect in corner-split markets. Back the Boro +1.5 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.85 – equivalent to fractional odds of 17-20. The bet will fall if Stevenage lose the corner count by two or more, otherwise it will pay out.

Paul Tisdale took Exeter to the last two League Two playoff finals. Working with a bigger budget this season as manager of MK Dons he may be heading toward something even better. The Dons lead League Two with 37 points from 18 games.

Stevenage are ninth with 28 points, two points below the playoff places.

The starting point for any consideration of a corners-related market should be the goals-related markets. The latter generally influence the former.

Bookmakers reckon there is something like a 54 per cent chance of a Dons win, a 25 per cent chance of a draw and a 21 per cent chance of a Stevenage win. There is no obvious reason to think those numbers are wrong by much, if they are wrong at all.

Over the last two decades in Football League games with similar goals expectations the home team beat an Asian corners handicap of +1.5 about 60 per cent of the time. Odds of 17-20 imply only a 54 per cent chance of a bet succeeding.

The chance of Stevenage beating an Asian corners handicap of +1.5 is not as high as 60 per cent, but it might not be quite as low as 54 per cent.

For the last couple of seasons Stevenage have performed less well in corners handicap markets than is usual for teams with similar won/drawn/lost records. Since March they have been managed by Dino Maamria.

Stevenage are less likely than many home teams in comparable games to beat an Asian corners handicap of +1.5. But eventually unusual stats tend to be superseded by less unusual ones, and the chance of Stevenage beating the line might be better than bet365 envisage.

Recommendation
Stevenage +1.5 Asian handicap corners
1pt 17-20 bet365

Bet on this match at Soccerbase.com

Thought for the day

Possession varies with the score. I wrote that after England beat Spain and I write it again now that England have beaten Croatia.

England won 3-2 in Spain with 27 per cent possession and they won 2-1 at home to Croatia with 62 per cent possession.

The difference between those games, and part of the explanation for the difference in possession stats, is the way in which the victories were achieved.

England led in Spain from the 16th minute and were three up after 38 minutes. For most of the match they did not need to score – just concede fewer goals than they had scored already.

Last Sunday England needed to beat Croatia to win the Nations League group and qualify for the semi-finals. They led for only five minutes and were behind for 21 minutes. For nearly all of the match they needed to score and for part of the match they needed to score twice.

Teams who need to score commit more players to attacks, which tend to last longer. Teams who do not need to score commit fewer players to attacks, which tend to fizzle out more quickly.