Saints could be sinners as much as visiting Magpies

Back Southampton to receive at least as many cards as Newcastle in the Premier League fixture at St Mary’s. In the sort of game it seems reasonable to anticipate, hosts have received at least as many cards as visitors more often than some of the odds suggest.

Back Southampton +0.5 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.9, equivalent to fractional odds of 9-10, with bet365. Each yellow will count as one and each red as two. The bet will win if Southampton’s total is equal to or greater than Newcastle’s.

Both teams have started the season with poorer results than they would have hoped for or probably deserve. After nine games Southampton are 16th in the table with six points. Newcastle are 20th and bottom with two points.

• Read Pullein On Football in The Assist

Long-term markets envisage Southampton being slightly stronger than Newcastle over the season but not by much. That seems reasonable. And on Saturday the Saints will benefit from ground advantage.

Result-related markets for St Mary’s imply roughly a 46 per cent chance of a Southampton win, a 29 per cent chance of a draw and a 25 per cent chance of a Newcastle win. And that also seems reasonable.

It is similar to what we should expect in any Premier League match where there is unlikely to be much separating the teams other than the ground advantage one of them will enjoy.

In such games in recent seasons the chance of the home team receiving as many or more cards than the away team was higher than the 53 per cent implied by odds of 9-10.

Southampton are not a dirty team and nor are Newcastle, so arguably the chance of Southampton receiving as many or more cards than Newcastle might also be higher than 53 per cent.

The referee at St Mary’s will be Chris Kavanagh, a young and excellent official.

Nearly all cards are shown for an honest but mistimed attempt to win the ball. Therefore the number of cards each team are likely to receive in a match is related to how long they are likely to spend defending, which in turn is related to the chances of them winning, drawing and losing.

Newcastle are more likely than Southampton to receive most cards. But the chance of Southampton receiving most cards or the same number as Newcastle – a slightly but importantly different proposition – may be greater than bet365 estimate.

Recommendation
Southampton +0.5 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.9 bet365

Thought for the Day

Burnley manager Sean Dyche, in a press conference last Friday, spoke about England’s win against Spain.

He said: “The fundamental point is fans want to win. The result was quality. Statistically we were annihilated. That is why you can’t get drunk on stats.”

I will try to stay sober.

Dyche pointed out that England had won 3-2 despite having only 27 per cent possession.

On the same day I wrote an article in the Racing Post explaining that against any given opponents a team are likely to have less possession if they win than if they lose. This is because there is less time in those games when they need to score.

England led from the 16th minute in Spain. By the 38th minute they were 3-0 up. It was because the game developed so well for them that they had so little possession. For most of the match they did not need to score and Spain did.

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A month earlier England had lost 2-1 at home to Spain. In that match they also led, but only for two minutes. There was much longer in that match when England needed to score and Spain did not. Therefore England had more possession, 45 per cent.

As a general rule, the stronger team in a match are likely to have most possession win, draw or lose. But if they lose they are likely to have even more possession than they would have done if they had won.

Spain in recent years were generally considered stronger than England, and they prized possession anyway. Against England they were always likely to have most possession, but even more when they lost than when they won.

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