Match Of The Day commentators don't seem to understand probability

On Match Of The Day I watch highlights with the sound on and often I will hear a commentator say something like “you just knew he was going to score” after a player has scored. It is meant as a compliment, and giving compliments is nice.

But of course before the player scored we could not be sure that he would score. More likely than not in similar situations the player will miss more often than not. And when he does miss the commentator along with everyone who was at the ground and everyone watching on television will howl “how could he not score?”

Opta define a big chance as one from which a player “should reasonably be expected to score.” They do not say what they mean by “should reasonably be expected to score”. Logically, though, the least it can mean is that this is a situation from which players will score more often than not. Logically it must mean there is more than a 50 per cent chance of a goal.

In the Premier League up to the turn of the year, though, only about 40 per cent of Opta-classified big chances became a goal. Only one of the 20 Premier League teams converted more than 50 per cent of their big chances. That was Tottenham.

What Opta’s data compilers count as a big chance is, I am sure, what most football fans would call a big chance. But it is not what Opta’s definition says should count as a big chance. Putting the ball in the goal is harder than we notice. Even when we think a goal must come it usually does not.

Best bet of the day

Coventry +2 corners handicap
1pt 5-4 Sky Bet

For a good-looking bet we will need something not shown by the fixture programmers who have asked teams to play four times in no more than 12 days: patience.

Bristol Rovers v Coventry is one of the FA Cup third-round ties put back until Sunday. It may be worth waiting for because it has what appears to be a value for money bet.

Back Coventry +2 corners at 5-4 with Sky Bet. If Rovers win the corners count by two or more the bet will fail. Otherwise it will succeed.

Both teams are well placed in League One so managers Ben Garner and Mark Robins could be forgiven if they rest some players to freshen them up for promotion challenges ahead.

As a player, Robins collected an FA Cup winner’s medal with Manchester United 30 years ago in 1990. He kick-started their campaign with the only goal in a third-round defeat of Nottingham Forest and also scored in the fifth round and a semi-final replay.

As a manager, Robins has already won the EFL Trophy and League Two playoffs with Coventry. Now they are third in League One, but only one point below an automatic promotion place and with a game in hand.

Garner became Rovers manager last month having previously been a first-team coach at Crystal Palace and West Bromwich. Rovers are eighth in League One, but below Peterborough in the last playoff place only on goal difference and with a game in hand – although Fleetwood, sandwiched in between, have two unplayed games.

Today the result-related markets imply something like a 47 per cent chance of Rovers scoring each goal that is scored. In games with similar goals expectations the chance of the away team beating a corners handicap of +2 would typically be about 4-6.

Coventry, it should be said, have performed less well in corners handicaps than is usual for a team with their record of goals for and against, especially this season away from home. Even so, on the road in League One they have still beaten a corners handicap of +2 six times of 11. And anyway something similar could be said of Rovers, especially this season at home.

Anything is possible at the Memorial Stadium but the chance of Coventry overcoming a corners handicap of +2 may be better than 5-4.

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