Kevin Pullein: Saturday's best corners bet and thought for the week

Best Bet

Gillingham to take most corners
0.5pt 4-1 Sky Bet

Analysis

Back Gillingham to take most corners in their FA Cup first-round tie at Sunderland. The bet is unlikely to succeed but perhaps not quite as unlikely as suggested by Sky Bet, who quote 4-1.

Sunderland are past winners of the FA Cup. On other weeks this season and last they have played in Sky Bet League One. A club of that size almost certainly will not stay as low as League One forever, but that is where they are at the moment. As are their opponents Gillingham. So league records might not be an unreasonable guide to what we should anticipate.

The result-related markets seem to agree, implying something like a 59 per cent chance of a Sunderland win, a 24 per cent chance of a draw and a 17 per cent chance of a Gillingham win. That seems about right.

Generally speaking, goals and corners are related. The more a team get of one, other things being equal, the more they are likely to get of the other, and vice versa. Both corners and goals are occasional byproducts of attacking.

Over the last two decades in EFL games with similar result-expectations to those for today at the Stadium of Light, there was something like a 25 per cent chance of the away team taking most corners. Three times out of four they did not, but one time out of four they did. Odds of 4-1 imply only a one-in-five – or 20 per cent chance – of a bet being successful.

There is nothing that leaps out from the corners records of Sunderland or Gillingham to suggest that we should think the chance of Gillingham taking most corners is quite as low as 20 per cent. In other words, there is nothing to suggest that we should expect Sunderland to consistently overachieve in corners markets, or Gillingham to consistently underachieve, or both.

And there you have it. More likely than not, Sunderland will take most corners. Much more likely than not. But the chance that Gillingham will flight the most flag-kicks, while low, might not be quite as low as Sky Bet estimate.

Thought for the week

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp said: “We cannot carry on like this”. He was expressing his frustration at Liverpool having to play on consecutive days next month – an EFL Cup quarter-final against Aston Villa then a Club World Cup semi-final in Qatar. They will send a different set of players to each.

“We have to find solutions,” Klopp said. “The problems are obvious.” Of course he is right. But nothing will be done. We will carry on like this.

Neither the EFL Cup nor the Club World Cup is an important competition, but winning the Club World Cup looks better on a CV, so presumably that is where Liverpool will send their best players. Their semi-final will be against Monterrey of Mexico, Hienghene Sport of New Caledonia or Al-Sadd of Qatar. They probably would have rested some regular starters against Villa anyway.

The best footballers in the world come from all over the world, but most of them play for teams in Europe. In the Club World Cup, European teams have won 14 out of 14 semi-finals and 11 of the last 12 finals.

This weekend is the first round of the FA Cup. From the third round onward some teams will be scheduled to play in two competitions on the same day – in the FA Cup and also in their league.

Of course double-booked teams are allowed to pull out of their league game, but they still have to play it on some other day. What day? Ah well, say the powers that be, you will have to sort that out for yourselves. And next season they will say the same.

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