Kevin Pullein predictions: Free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Soccer Boffin Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Scunthorpe +1.5 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.85 bet365

Tranmere are clear favourites to score most goals in their League Two game at Scunthorpe. This is understandable – they are higher in the table, and finished higher last season as well as being in a higher division the season before.

Tranmere should also be favourites to take most corners – but perhaps not as strong favourites as bet365 make them. Back Scunthorpe +1 .5 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.85, equivalent to a fractional price of 17-20. If Scunthorpe lose the corners count by two or more the bet will fail, in other circumstances it will succeed.

Micky Mellon is back as manager of Tranmere after a season in the Scottish Premiership with Dundee United. With him in charge before they won promotions from the National League and League Two. Last season, back in League Two, they qualified for the playoffs.

Scunthorpe in League Two finished 22nd last season and 20th the season before.

Result-related odds for Saturday seem to be in the right general area. They imply a 26 per cent chance of a Scunthorpe win, a 30 per cent chance of a draw and a 44 per cent chance of a Tranmere win.

In previous seasons in EFL games with similar result expectations decimal odds for the home team +1.5 Asian handicap corners would typically have been shorter than 1.85. Should they be today?

Neil Cox has managed Scunthorpe since the start of last season. Then they performed less well in corners handicap markets than is usual for teams with similar number of goals for and against.

That has not happened this season. In fact they have taken more corners than they have defended. But they have played only four games and small samples can be misleading.

Over the rest of this season it is most likely that Scunthorpe will do less well in corners handicap markets. They could fare as badly for backers as they did last season, and if they do they will probably lose the corners count today by at least two.

More likely, though, what happens will be something in between. And it is possible that the chance of Scunthorpe beating an Asian handicap corners line of +1.5 today is better than implied by decimal odds of 1.85.

Are managers right to cry foul over change in refereeing?

Premier League referees announced that this season they would not penalise trivial offences.

After the first weekend pundits said games were better because they had been allowed to flow. During the second weekend managers Jurgen Klopp of Liverpool and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer of Manchester United said referees had gone too far and were allowing tackles that could cause injuries.

What is the reality?

Over the two weekends referees whistled for an average of 20 fouls per game. Last season they awarded 22 fouls per game.

Some observers said that last season referees had become pernickety, whistling for light physical contact in empty stadiums when they would have waved play-on if stadiums had been full. For most of the previous season, though, stadiums had been full and then referees also awarded 22 fouls per game.

In fact, in each of past 11 seasons – 2010-11 to 2020-21 – fouls per game fell within a narrow range, never lower than 20 or higher than 23.

Are we, I wonder, seeing what we were told we would see instead of what is there? Before I gave you the figures did you think the number of fouls awarded this season had dropped more significantly?

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