Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best Bet

Getafe +0.5 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.95 bet365

Getafe could receive as many or more cards than Rayo Vallecano in their Madrid derby in La Liga. Back Getafe +0.5 Asian handicap cards with bet365 at decimal odds of 1.95, equivalent to the fractional price of 19-20.

Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Getafe’s total is higher than Rayo’s the bet will win, if not it will lose.

There are several discouraging stats.

The bet would have lost on the last two occasion the fixture was played in La Liga, in seasons 2015-16 and 2018-19 – between and afterwards Rayo were in the Segunda Division.

Also Rayo have received an unusually high proportion of the cards in their games for a few seasons. Not so far this season, but this season is only four games old.

And although fans have returned to La Liga this season, and home teams have scored more goals than away teams, unusually home teams have also received more cards than away teams. This will probably change as the season goes on, but it is not certain to. Today Rayo are at home and Getafe away.

There are also one or two encouraging stats, though.

The bet would have won four of the last six times the fixture was played in La Liga – just not in the most recent two.

And in today’s result-related markets Rayo are regarded, probably correctly, as more likely to score most goals – not by much, but by a little. In most circumstances this would mean Getafe should be regarded as slightly more likely to receive most cards – and be stronger favourites to receive more or as many cards.

There are more negatives than pluses, but even so it is still possible that decimal odds for Getafe +0.5 Asian handicap cards should be shorter than 1.95.

Thought for the week

The most open Premier League title race in years? Ever? It may be, or it may not. At this stage, there seem to be four genuinely strong contenders – in the order they appear in the betting, Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United. They may all stay in the running. Or one, two or three may drop behind.

After four games, what can we tell? What are the signals, and how good are they? I looked back over the last 26 Premier League seasons – 1995-96 to 2020-21, all those since the number of teams was reduced to 20.

Twenty of the teams who went on to become champions had been in the top four after four games. Three more had been placed between fifth and seventh. Encouraging news for Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool (currently first, second and third), though not awful news for Manchester City (currently fifth).

United, Chelsea and Liverpool all have the same number of points. So let us consider points rather than positions.

Twenty of the teams who would become champions had eight points or more after four games. The other six had between seven and five points. Nobody won the Premier League with fewer than five points from their opening four games. Positive news for United, Chelsea, Liverpool (all with ten points) and City (nine points).

Did title-winning experience help? Twenty of the teams who became champions had been champions in one of the previous four seasons. Heartening news for City and Liverpool, but not terrible news for Chelsea and United – after all, Leicester won the title and they had never won it before.

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