Kevin Pullein predctions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football expert Kevin Pullein with his best bet of the weekend and his thought for the day

Best bet

Doncaster +3 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.95 bet365

Wigan are more likely than Doncaster to score most goals in their League One game. They are also more likely to take most corners. But the chance of them taking a lot more corners may be lower than bet365 suggest.

Back Doncaster +3 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.95, equivalent to fractional odds of 19-20. If Doncaster lose the corner count by more than three the bet will fail, if they lose by three stakes will be returned, and if anything else happens the bet will succeed.

Wigan have started the season well and Doncaster have not. Wigan are fifth with ten points from five games, while Doncaster are 24th and bottom with one point from five games.

In all likelihood Wigan will remain in contention for promotion – currently they are in a playoff place. Doncaster, in all likelihood, will get better results as the season goes on. Nonetheless, Wigan deserve to be favourites at home to take all three points.

The result-related markets imply something like a 59 per cent chance of a Wigan win, a 24 per cent chance of a draw and a 17 per cent chance of a Doncaster win.

Ordinarily in an EFL game with those sort of result expectations, fair decimal odds about the away team +3 Asian handicap corners would be shorter than 1.95. And it is possible they should still be shorter than 1.95 today.

Doncaster in the three seasons before this one fared less well in corners handicap markets than we should have anticipated from the numbers of goals they scored and conceded – a lot worse last season, a bit worse in the previous two.

That has not been the case this term, although they have played only a few games. And it is possible that the prospect of Doncaster +3 Asian handicap corners are at least a bit brighter than the odds imply.

Thought for the week

It's early days but with the return of fans there is evidence to suggest that ground advantage could be as important again as it used to be.

In the seasons 2009-10 to 2018-19 – the ten completed before the start of the coronavirus pandemic – home teams across the Premier League and EFL scored 56 per cent of all goals. This season also they have scored 56 per cent of all goals.

Because these are early days, and not many games have been played, there have been differences between divisions. This was only to be expected. For example, home teams have scored 62 per cent of all goals in the Premier League but only 50 per cent in the Championship.

Abroad there have been full attendances in Spain and France. In the ten seasons 2009-10 to 2018-19 home teams scored 58 per cent of all goals in La Liga and in Ligue 1. This season home teams have scored 57 per cent of all goals in La Liga, almost as many as before, though only 53 per cent in Ligue 1, which is still down.

In those ten seasons home teams scored 57 per cent of all goals in Serie A and 56 per cent in the Bundesliga. From the start of this season no more than half of ground capacity was allowed in Germany and Italy. Even so, home teams have scored 56 per cent of all goals in Serie A and 65 per cent in the Bundesliga.

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