Is there any such thing as a winning habit for Liverpool to lose?

There has been a lot of talk in the last few days that Liverpool have lost the winning habit. I am not sure what a winning habit is. Even the best teams do not win every game, and the games they do not win are less likely to be spread at perfectly even intervals throughout a season than in some places to cluster.

Liverpool have lost three of their last four games. They lost 1-0 at Atletico Madrid in a Champions League last-16 first leg, so they could still qualify. They lost 3-0 at Watford after going 44 Premier League games unbeaten. Then, with a half-strength starting 11, they lost 2-0 at Chelsea in the FA Cup.

I see no reason to believe that Liverpool have any fewer qualities today than they had before those defeats and I fully expect them to be racking up wins again before long.

For an example we need look no further than… Liverpool.

The first Premier League defeat for Jurgen Klopp's team last season came in their 21st game. Four days later they were knocked out of the FA Cup. So what has happened this season is similar to what happened last season. And last season Liverpool played 17 more Premier League games without defeat. Then they started this season by going another 27 Premier League games unbeaten.

When Manchester City won the Premier League last season and the season before, the games they did not win came in clusters. When we look back at the end of this season on what I am sure will have been a successful campaign for Liverpool I think we will find that they won most of their games, but that the games they did not win came in clusters.

Best bet of the day

Tranmere +3 corners
1pt 10-11 Sky Bet

Accrington are higher than Tranmere in Sky Bet League One. They are probably a better team. They are more likely to win at the Crown Ground. But this seems to be reflected fully in the odds.

As the team likely to score most goals, Accrington are also likely to do more attacking, which in turn means they are the team likely to take most corners. But the chance of Accrington winning the corners count by a distance may have been overestimated in some places.

Back Tranmere +3 corners at 10-11 with Sky Bet.

If Accrington win the corners count by three or more the bet will fail, but if anything else happens it will succeed.

Accrington are 16th in League One with 40 points from 34 games. Tranmere are 21st, just below the relegation line, with 25 points from 32 games.

Odds in the result-related markets imply a 52 per cent chance of an Accrington win, a 26 per cent chance of a draw and a 22 per cent chance of a Tranmere win. It is doubtful those odds are wrong by much, if at all.

Over the past two decades in EFL games with similar result expectations fair odds about the away team +3 corners would typically have been 8-13. They imply a 62 per cent chance of the event occurring. Odds of 10-11 imply a 52 per cent chance of a payout.

For nearly four seasons Accrington have performed better in corners handicap markets than other teams who scored and conceded similar numbers of goals. But even if that trend continues it is debatable whether the right odds would be as big as 10-11.

Visitors to the Crown Ground this season have beaten a +3 corners handicap ten times out of 16 – 62 per cent. Last season the stats were 15 times out of 23, or 65 per cent. Before last season Accrington were in League Two.

As always, a lot may depend on whether goals are scored and by whom. Teams tend to do more attacking, and gain more corners, when they still need to score.

All things considered, though, it does seem possible that odds for Tranmere +3 corners should not be as big as 10-11.

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