How injuries, ill discipline and Club World Cup fatigue have derailed Chelsea’s title hopes

Chelsea were backed from 16-1 to 8-1 in the ante-post Premier League title betting following their 3-0 triumph over Paris Saint-Germain in the Club World Cup final in July.

However, the Blues are already out to 40-1 after dropping ten points in their first six games, with red cards, injuries and individual mistakes proving costly.

Football hype and narrative increasingly veers from one extreme to the other. 

If Chelsea's injury-hit defence cannot contain Liverpool's star forwards on Saturday, the discourse is likely to focus on under-pressure manager Enzo Maresca, just a month or two after his stock was at its highest.

Maresca led the Blues to a top-four finish for the first time since 2021-22 and, when he has been able to get his best players on the pitch and keep them there, it is evident that he has the foundations of a decent side.

Chelsea's total of 77 points since the start of last season is the fourth-highest in the division, four fewer than third-placed Manchester City and five more than Newcastle. The underlying numbers paint a similar picture although the data has trended down since the new year.

The structure that Maresca succeeded in installing in his first season at the club was too regimented and predictable for some Blues fans. 

The logical next step would be to increase fluidity and positional rotations with players who are already well drilled in the system's fundamentals. 

But Chelsea's unprecedented player-trading model means Maresca must instead spend time integrating summer signings. Alejandro Garnacho and Jamie Gittens' limited playing time suggests they are still earning his trust.

Eight points from six league games is a disappointing return although the outlook would be brighter had Trevoh Chalobah's 53rd-minute red card against Brighton last weekend not turned a likely three points into another defeat.

Chelsea had restricted the Seagulls to three shots, worth only 0.12 expected goals, prior to his dismissal, and a week earlier goalkeeper Robert Sanchez was sent off in the fifth minute against Manchester United, who went on to win 2-1 at Old Trafford.

There is a positive spin for Chelsea this season. Stripping out the minutes when red cards have given one team a numerical advantage, the Blues still rank in the top tier of sides based on performance data – alongside Manchester City, Arsenal and Crystal Palace and ahead of this weekend's visitors Liverpool.

The negative is that the Blues have had one of the easier runs of early-season fixtures so that data may be slightly flattering. And things are about to get tougher, both in terms of the schedule and team selection, as key players including Cole Palmer face spells on the sidelines.

Maresca should not take the blame for the red cards but he admitted, with hindsight, that he could have made better decisions reacting to them.

Leaving more pacy counter-attacking threats on the pitch would probably have aided their cause. Mustering only three second-half shots at Old Trafford, chasing the game after United had also been reduced to ten men, was a limp showing.

Maresca is a relatively inexperienced manager, learning on the job about the capabilities of his new players and different match situations, and coping with Champions League commitments for the first time.

Poor discipline has been a recurring problem during his time at Stamford Bridge. The Blues received the most bookings in the division in 2024-25 although Maresca inherited a team who set the Premier League record for cards under Mauricio Pochettino the season before.

The accompanying table suggests a stronger correlation between Chelsea's high card tallies and the age profile of their squad. Perhaps a lack of discipline, maturity and calmness is the trade-off for youthful exuberance.

It is reasonable to ask how and when Chelsea's decision-makers expect their young assets to mature and develop into a side capable of competing for the title.

They were worthy of last season's top-four finish but, despite the money spent in the summer, they still have problems in the same areas most observers identified at the end of term. Is the goalkeeper too erratic? Do they have a reliable frontman or a defensive linchpin?

Perhaps Liam Delap will provide a solution up front when he returns from injury. Or perhaps he will just be flipped for a profit in a year or two.

Joao Pedro was only fit enough for the bench against Benfica on Tuesday so academy winger Tyrique George, who was linked with a deadline-day departure, had to fill the striker's role against Benfica on Tuesday.

Pedro boasts excellent touch in tight spaces, is a good creator and has linked play well but he is a 'false nine' rather than a true frontman.

He doesn't stretch defences in behind, provide a presence in the penalty area or produce a high volume of shots.

Pedro may develop those attributes but, until he does, Chelsea need to find that movement and output elsewhere in the frontline.

Nicolas Jackson, jettisoned on loan to Bayern Munich, could be inefficient with his finishing – and had his own disciplinary problems – but he was able to get into dangerous areas and generate shots for himself. 

Jackson averaged 3.1 shots per game last season, almost double Pedro's figure this term. The Brazilian's last attempt on target in all competitions came in first-half stoppage time against Fulham at the end of August.

At the other end of the pitch, when keeper Sanchez is good, as he was at the Club World Cup, he can be very good. But his bad moments, usually caused by rash decision-making and positioning, are too damaging for a team with ambitions of challenging for the title.

Last season, for example, Sanchez made ten Opta-defined errors leading to a shot – the most in the Premier League.

Liverpool's title-winning keeper Alisson was responsible for only one such error and Milan's Mike Maignan, heavily linked with a move to Chelsea, made three in Serie A and would surely have provided a calmer presence for the Blues' defenders.

Chelsea's backline is severely depleted and they will field their fifth different centre-back pairing of the league campaign on Saturday. Opponents Liverpool used only four combinations in the whole of last season.

Benoit Badiashile made his first start of 2025-26 in Tuesday's 1-0 win over Benfica and he restores the left-footed passing between the lines that the Blues lost due to Levi Colwill's long-term injury.

But centre-back remains a position of weakness, which Chelsea failed to address in the three weeks between England international Colwill's ACL injury and the end of the summer transfer window.

Levi Colwill's absence has left Chelsea short on defensive optionsCredit: Getty Images

The Blues' transfer policy is unprecedented and so is their situation of having to deal with a severely shortened off-season due to their run to the Club World Cup final.

Pre-season is a crucial period, helping players build up the physical conditioning they need to last the campaign. 

Chelsea's early-season injury record, like that of CWC runners-up Paris Saint-Germain, suggests their success at the summer tournament could have major repercussions. 

Several of the Parisians' biggest stars have suffered muscular injuries although the fact that they play in a less competitive league has helped them cope with those absences.

Chelsea were without six first-teamers due to injury against Brighton. Last season the English clubs involved in Europe averaged 0.3 points per game fewer in matches when they had six or more players sidelined.

Moises Caicedo played against Benfica despite being a doubtful starter and Blues fans must be praying that they are not deprived of the midfielder's all-round influence for a significant time. Maresca will be well aware that Caicedo, along with a tired-looking Enzo Fernandez, will need a rest at some point.

Ill discipline has cost the Blues points recently but ill health is their biggest threat in the immediate future.

The summer transfer business churned over Chelsea's squad but does not seem to have strengthened it enough to elevate them from top-four contenders to title challengers.

Perhaps their main source of comfort is the fact that many of their most obvious top-four rivals have also suffered setbacks.

If Chelsea get their key performers back after the upcoming international break then they have the quality to put their recent struggles behind them but injury crises have a worrying trend of escalating.

Read more:

Bournemouth vs Fulham predictions, team news, betting tips, odds and Bet Builder 

Football accumulator tips for Friday October 3: Back our acca at 13-1 with bet365  

The Early Bird: Weekend football predictions & free betting accumulator tips from James Milton   

Let's go Nuno: What West Ham's new boss needs to get right 

'I think Liverpool will hammer Chelsea' – Henry Hardwicke takes a strong view in our Expert Jury  

Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.