Atletico Madrid could be on their best behaviour after Diego Costa's suspension

Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo

TV: Eleven Sports, 5.30pm Saturday

Diego Costa was sent off for saying something rude about referee Jesus Gil Manzano’s mother during Atletico Madrid’s game at Barcelona last Saturday. Costa has been banned for eight games – four for insulting the referee’s parent and four for grabbing the referee’s arm.

Atletico say they will appeal but Costa should not play in Saturday’s La Liga game at home to Celta Vigo. Hopefully no one will insult the mother of Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea. It is the sort of game in which the chance of a low card count may be better than bet365 envisage.

Back under 5.5 Asian total cards at decimal odds of 1.975 – equivalent to fractional odds of 39-40. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. The make-up last week at Camp Nou was nine. This time we need it to be five or lower.

Atletico’s games can boil over, and not only against other top teams such as Barcelona and Real Madrid. Sometimes players lose their temper, sometimes they provoke opponents into losing theirs. Everyone knows this.

But for the last few seasons Atletico’s games overall have not required more cards than those of other teams in La Liga. At home in La Liga during the last five and a bit seasons – nearly six now – fewer than 5.5 cards were shown in 65 games out of 110, which is 59 per cent. Decimal odds of 1.975 imply less than a 51 per cent chance of a bet being successful.

Celta, admittedly, are concerned about losing their place in La Liga. At kick-off they will be two places and two points above the relegation line. After the weekend they could be below it. This worry could affect their discipline. It has not so far but it could start to.

After this game Celta have three against teams in the bottom half of the table before they go to leaders Barcelona. Presumably they will think that trio of games offers better prospects of points and will not be surprised if they should lose at Atletico.

Referee De Burgos Bengoetxea’s card counts have been fairly middle-of-the-road for La Liga. He could show any number of cards in this game but the chance that he will show fewer than 5.5 may be better than bet365 anticipate.

Recommendation
Under 5.5 Asian total cards in Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo
1pt 1.975 bet365

La Liga standings

Thought for the week

I wish you could bet on the knee-jerk narrative after a football match. I think I would get it right every time. I certainly got it right on Tuesday. On that occasion, as on so many others, I also thought the knee-jerk narrative might be wrong.

Manchester City lost at Tottenham in a Champions League quarter-final first leg. The story went that City were beaten because they had not played their natural game. They had been too cautious.

Some versions added that manager Pep Guardiola had overreacted to last season’s Champions League quarter-final first leg at Liverpool, which City lost 3-0. Actually City started cautiously in that game as well. And they were unlucky to lose.

The first goal came from an unfortunate rebound that set off a counter-attack. The second goal, shortly afterwards, was the sort of snap-shot that is drooled over when it goes in but nearly always comes to rest far from the goal. And then City seemed shell-shocked.

They played more conservatively than usual this season in both Premier League games against Liverpool. They won one and drew the other after missing a late penalty, and arguably were the better team in both.

I thought that in previous seasons Guardiola’s approach had sometimes been too adventurous with City and Bayern Munich in big games, allowing top opponents to pick off his teams on the break. Rather more significantly, Guardiola seems to have reached the same conclusion.

Usually when City attack the formation is 2-3-5. At Tottenham it was 2-4-4. City came for a draw, and they probably deserved to get one. Although they had most of the ball, for much of the time it was some distance from the Tottenham goal. But still they created a similar number and quality of chances to Tottenham.

City could have won 1-0 if Sergio Aguero had scored with a penalty kick. Afterwards everything would have been different. Instead City lost 1-0. If the ball had rolled just a few inches further, though, it would have gone off the pitch before Heung-Min Son scored Tottenham’s goal.

And if City had got the draw they probably deserved the knee-jerk narrative would have been that they were right to play more cautiously.

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