NFL Week 13 predictions, odds and betting tips: Numbers add up to Niners win

Free NFL tips, best bets and analysis for Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season.

Best bets

Under 40.5 points in Washington Commanders at New York Giants
6pm Sunday
1pt 10-11 Hills

New York Jets +3.5
6pm Sunday
2pts 4-5 Boyles

San Francisco 49ers -3.5
9.05pm Sunday
2pts 20-23 Boyles

Las Vegas Raiders
9.25pm Sunday
1pt 20-21 bet365, Boyles

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

These two NFC East rivals are trending in opposite directions with the Commanders arriving in New York having won six of their last seven to face a Giants teams who have lost three their last four games.

Teams have figured out the Giants' offence, which has scored 20 or fewer points in its three recent defeats. Running back Saquon Barkley has gone off the boil, rushing for a combined 61 yards in the last two weeks, placing emphasis on quarterback Daniel Jones’s throwing ability, which has been erratic.

The Giants will look to run the ball but the Commanders defence rank fourth against the rush and should make it challenging for New York to put up points.

Washington’s offence will also be run-orientated and that hasn’t led to a lot of points being scored during the Commanders’ good run -three of their last five games have ended with 20 points or fewer.

These teams, who scored a combined 29 points in their last encounter, will look to their defences to win an ugly divisional clash.

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings

The Jets may have found the missing piece of the puzzle in quarterback Mike White, who replaced the anaemic Zach Wilson in the Jets' resounding Week 12 win over the Chicago Bears.

The Jets had been struggling to score points with Wilson under centre but White threw four touchdowns against the Bears. The Vikings defence present more of a challenge but White’s preference to throw short passes matches up well against a Minnesota team who now rank 27th defending the pass.

The last time the Vikings hosted a team with an elite defence they ended up being crushed 40-3. On that occasion, it was the Cowboys who put the clamps on Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins and company, and they face a similar problem against a Jets defence who sit fourth overall in defensive DVOA.

The Jets have held six of their last seven opponents to 20 points or fewer and have faced some good offences in that time, including Buffalo and Miami, so can be trusted to get on top of the Vikings.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

For all the NFL’s razzmatazz and focus on highlight reel plays, games are still more often than not decided in the trenches, between the offensive and defensive lines. That is where the key may lie to Miami’s trip to face San Francisco, as no team are meaner and nastier along their lines than the 49ers.

San Francisco’s defence hasn’t given up a single point in the last six quarters and have been turning up the heat on the opposition at crunch time, outscoring their last four opponents by a combined 57-0 in the second halves of the last four games.

The Niners' top-ranked pass rush should trouble a Miami offensive line that struggled to protect quarterback Tua Tagovailoa against the lowly Houston Texans last time out.

The Dolphins have beaten up some bad teams of late but this is the best defence they’ve come up against since they were stomped 40-17 by the New York Jets.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

This line has shifted significantly since the start of the week, when the Raiders opened as two-point underdogs. They now sit as one-point favourites and while some of the value may have gone, they are still worth backing to see off an inconsistent Chargers team.

Las Vegas have won back-to-back games, impressively overcoming Seattle on the road last time out to stay on the fringes of the playoff race.

A win over the Chargers is a must if Las Vegas want a postseason berth and they have the tools to expose the injury-hit and badly coached Bolts.

The Raiders rushing attack, led by Josh Jacobs, should enjoy a big day against a bad LA run defence, while LA’s nasty habit of falling away in the second half of games this season always leaves them vulnerable.

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