Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs betting tips and NFL predictions

Free NFL picks, best bets and previews for the AFC Championship Game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in the NFL playoffs for the 2020-21 season.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Where to watch

Sky Sports NFL, 11.40pm Sunday

Best bet

Buffalo +3.5
2pts 20-23 Betfred

Preview

Kansas City are still on course to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since New England 16 years ago, but they could have their hands full against Buffalo in the AFC Championship game.

The Chiefs will have been glad to get through their divisional contest against Cleveland, who failed to make the most of having the ball in their hands down by five points in the final five minutes.

The AFC number one seeds were without talismanic quarterback Patrick Mahomes by that stage and although they hung on to win 22-17, they failed to cover the handicap for the eighth time in their last nine games.

Buffalo are not handed as many points by bookmakers, but a line of around three points for a game at Arrowhead Stadium underlines the threat Buffalo pose on their quest to win their first Super Bowl.

The Bills, second seeds in the AFC, had to work harder than they might have liked to see off Indianapolis 27-24 in the Wild Card round, and a huge defensive play by Taron Johnson decided their 17-3 success over Baltimore last week.

Johnson intercepted a pass from Lamar Jackson inside the Bills end zone and returned it 101 yards for a touchdown, giving Buffalo their eighth successive win.

The only play that prevented that winning streak being 12 games was the incredible Hail Murray TD pass that gave Arizona a last-gasp success over the Bills in Week Ten.

One of Buffalo's three defeats this season was inflicted by the Chiefs, 26-17 in Week Six, but Sean McDermott's team gave a decent account of themselves in that contest and made great strides in the second half of the season.

Mahomes is set to play after being knocked out of the Browns game with concussion in the third quarter, but he had earlier been hampered by a toe injury and although Chad Henne managed to get them over the line last week, they need their star man to be on top form.

The Chiefs have squeezed home against some elite teams in the second half of the season, beating Tampa Bay and New Orleans by three points.

But the Bills are strong on both sides of the ball, have covered the handicap in nine of their last ten games, and look capable of at least pushing the champions all the way.

Team news

Buffalo

Defensive tackle Vernon Butler (quadricep) and wide receiver Gabriel Davis (ankle) are questionable. Wide receivers Cole Beasley (knee) and Stefon Diggs (quadricep) are set to play.

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes (concussion, toe) is set to play. Linebacker Willie Gay (ankle) has been ruled out. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins (calf), running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) and Le'Veon Bell (knee) and cornerbacks Rashad Fenton (foot) and Bashaud Breeland (concussion/shoulder) are all rated questionable.

Key stats

• Buffalo have covered the handicap in nine of their last ten games.
• The Chiefs have not covered the handicap in any of their last nine games (eight handicap losses, one tie).
• Kansas City have won 14 of their last 16 home games.

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