Japanese Grand Prix betting tips and F1 predictions: Hamilton offers value

Free F1 tips, best bets and analysis for the Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka Circuit this weekend.

Where to watch

Practice one & two Sky Sports F1, 4am & 7am Friday
Practice three & qualifying Sky Sports F1, 4am & 7am Saturday
Race Sky Sports F1, 6am Sunday

Best bets

Lewis Hamilton fastest qualifier
0.5pt each-way 10-1 general

Sergio Perez podium finish
1pt 13-10 Hills

Weekend preview

There was precious little to be learned from the wet-weather running on Friday as the Japanese Grand Prix weekend got off to a very damp start.

Fernando Alonso topped the opening session, but most drivers opted for just a handful of laps as the ever-changing conditions meant it wasn't worth the risk of a crash.

George Russell headed a Mercedes 1-2 in the afternoon, but both he and teammate Lewis Hamilton were refusing to get carried away afterwards.

Saturday at Suzuka is forecast to be dry, with blustery and changeable conditions for race day.

Max Verstappen arrives with a 104-point lead despite a rare off-weekend in Singapore, and the Dutchman will seal his second world championship if he can outscore Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc by eight points and his own Red Bull team-mate Sergio Perez by six on Sunday.

While Verstappen’s winning run was halted at five last weekend, Red Bull’s rolled on as Perez took an impressive victory.

The Mexican has won both rain-hit races this year, having also won in Monaco in May, and he looks overpriced to reach the podium at Suzuka.

The circuit, with its sweeping curves and high-speed changes of direction looks ideally suited to Mercedes, but rain could scupper their chances.

Hamilton has won at least one race every year since his F1 career started in 2007, but time is running out for him to break his duck for 2022.

The seven-time world champion struggled for grip on the wet track in Singapore but missed out on his first pole position of the season by just 0.05 seconds as the circuit dried out in qualifying.

Granted, Verstappen lost an easy pole thanks to a rare howler from the team, but it was still encouraging for Hamilton.

Russell was fastest in qualifying in Hungary for Mercedes at another circuit made up mostly of corners, but Hamilton has gained the upper hand at the team and could be value.

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