Piastri vs Norris: 2025 F1 season primed for a classic championship battle between McLaren teammates

2025 F1 world drivers championship analysis

The 20 Formula One drivers are a week into their summer break but when they return for the second part of the campaign in the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of this month, only two of them will be in contention for the title.

McLaren have dominated the season, winning 11 of the first 14 races through Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, and odds indicate that it's almost certain that one of them will win their first championship.

The British team were evens favourites to retain the constructors championship they won for the first time in 26 years last season, but while their margin over Ferrari was just 14 points last season, they have blown away everyone this time and lead the team standings by 299 points with more than double the number of points of the Scuderia in second.

That leaves the drivers battle as the only show in town – and it's shaping up to be a real humdinger.

Norris, who finished runner-up to Max Verstappen last season, was the favourite to open his title account in 2025 and was a 7-4 shot when the campaign began in March, with the defending champion 7-2. 

Piastri, who had finished ninth and fourth in his first two seasons in F1, was only fifth in the betting at 8-1, with the Ferrari pair of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton also ahead of him.

Anyone who took that price will be happy with what they've seen as Piastri is now the 8-13 favourite with Norris available at 11-8. It's 100-1 that Verstappen wins a fifth consecutive title and 250-1 that anyone else prevails, so we're looking at a straight fight between the papaya-clad pair.

The Australian leads Norris by nine points, but the Briton has won three of the last four rounds and the battle looks set to rage for the rest of the campaign.

With a major regulation change coming in 2026, there's no point in Ferrari, Red Bull or Mercedes continuing to develop their 2025 cars and they've effectively thrown in the towel on this season's championships, turning their attention to the greater gains to be had next year.

So, who will prevail in the showdown between the McLaren men?

2025 F1 world drivers championship odds & standings

Odds correct at time of publication

What we've seen so far in 2025

Norris appeared to be the obvious candidate to win the drivers title if McLaren continued to have the fastest car this season, as had been the case in the second half of last season after they introduced a major upgrade package at the Miami Grand Prix.

He won four races last year to Piastri's two and will have had positive vibes over the winter after winning the finale in Abu Dhabi.

However, Piastri's talent has never been in doubt and the skills that made him the F3 champion in 2020 and F2 champion in 2021 have been taken to a new level this year.

Piastri had his worst finish of the season at his home race in Australia, where a late rain storm saw him slide off the track and finish ninth, but he has not been lower than fourth in any race since the season opener and three consecutive wins in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Miami left Norris playing catch-up.

The Aussie has improved his pace at most circuits this year to the extent that there's very little between the pair in most sessions and his technical knowledge has notably helped him to develop his car set-up over a race weekend.

The unflappable Australian's temperament has been a real asset, while a more fragile mindset has been a hindrance for Norris, who has been understandably rattled by the strength of Piastri's challenge.

Norris has bounced back well enough in recent races, though, and whenever he avoids errors, which have plagued him in the final session of qualifying in particular, he should always be in the hunt for race wins.

The British star has delivered victories in three of the last four races at Spielberg, Silverstone and Budapest, but he will be hoping that the clash between the pair in Canada, when a frustrated Norris crashed into the back of Piastri and had to retire, does not end up being the defining moment of the season. 

Lando Norris trudges off in Montreal after crashing into the back of his teammate Oscar Piastri's McLarenCredit: Getty Images

What will we see in the final ten races?

Piastri has six wins to Norris's five, but the good news for the British driver is that last time around he clearly outperformed Piastri at the tracks that they are still to visit.

Norris won last year's Dutch Grand Prix, which will be the first race back, and he finished ahead of Piastri at seven of the ten circuits they are yet to race at this year, winning in Singapore and Abu Dhabi. 

Piastri was ahead of Norris only in Italy, Azerbaijan (where he won) and in Qatar in 2024, but do not expect Norris to have such a clear edge this time given how much Piastri has raised his performance level.

Much will be made of how the team handle the battle between their drivers, who still appear to get on pretty well while clearly being disappointed whenever they lose out. Piastri made it clear on his radio in Hungary that he would rather concede the race win to Leclerc than risk finishing behind Norris.

In addition to their collision in Montreal, there have been further near-misses between the pair, with Piastri apologising for a dangerous lunge in Austria and also going close to spearing into his teammate in Hungary.

At other times, the pair have gone wheel to wheel in some firm but fair racing, and after taking one-two finishes in five of the last six rounds there should be plenty more to come. The McLaren has been so reliable that even one engine failure for either driver could decide the title, with a potential 25-point gain being worth more than three wins when the other driver comes second.

McLaren have featured in several of the most memorable title battles between teammates in F1 history and, with team harmony next season in mind, team principal Andrea Stella will hope his pairing can end the campaign on better terms than Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost in 1988 or Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton in 2007.

Their advantage over their rivals – Verstappen is 88 points behind Norris and hasn't even made the podium at the last four races – means the team can really just let them get on with it from here on, and the fight for the title should provide us with plenty more entertainment between now and the finale in December.

Five close F1 world championship battles between teammates

1  Lauda v Prost (McLaren 1984)

McLaren won 12 of the 16 races in 1984 with Niki Lauda clinching his third world title by just half a point, 72-71.5. Prost won the last two rounds, but Lauda's second place in the final in Portugal was enough.

Second place in Portugal was enough for Niki Lauda to win the 1984 world championship by just half a point from Alain ProstCredit: Getty Images

2 Senna v Prost (McLaren 1988)

The rivalry between iconic champions Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost began in 1988 when the McLaren duo won 15 of the 16 races. The Brazilian became champion for the first time with a three-point margin (90-87).

3 Rosberg v Hamilton (Mercedes 2016)

Nico Rosberg promptly retired after pipping his teammate Lewis Hamilton to the crown in 2016. Hamilton had won the previous two titles and went on to win the next four, but two retirements to Rosberg's one over the season saw him finish five points behind the German (385-380) despite taking ten wins to Rosberg's nine.

4 Hill v Villeneuve (Williams 1996)

After finishing runner-up to Michael Schumacher in the previous two seasons, Damon Hill finally joined his father Graham as a world champion by holding off the challenge of his Williams teammate Jacques Villeneuve in 1996. The Canadian could still have won going into the final race, but he retired as Hill won at Suzuka, enabling the British driver to win 97-78.

5 Hamilton v Alonso (& Raikkonen) (McLaren 2007)

One of the fiercest title battles between teammates was so wild that neither of them won. In 2007, McLaren had signed double world champion Fernando Alonso and paired him with rookie sensation Lewis Hamilton, whose talent rattled the Spaniard from the off. A feisty fight between the pair ended with them both scoring 109 points, while Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen won three of the last four races to pip the feuding pair on 110.

McLaren had a real problem in 2007 when the fight between Fernando Alonso (left) and rookie Lewis Hamilton led to them both missing out on the title by one pointCredit: AFP via Getty Images

Recommended Offer

4/5

NEW CUSTOMER OFFER

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

NEW CUSTOMER OFFER

• Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG)

CLAIM OFFER

18+ T&Cs apply

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required.

Read more from our experts:

Football accumulator tips for Monday August 11: Back our acca at 8-1 with bet365 

Racing Post Ringside: Boxing news, betting insights & upcoming fights – stacked Saudi card the next big event 

The Hundred: Manchester Originals vs London Spirit predictions, betting tips and odds 

Click for more free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.