Monaco Grand Prix F1 betting tips, odds and predictions: Monaco mayhem a danger to pole man Norris

Where to watch the Monaco Grand Prix

The Monaco Grand Prix will be shown live on Sky Sports F1 at 2pm on Sunday, May 25

Best bets

Oscar Piastri
1pt each-way 5-1 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

Max Verstappen
1pt each-way 16-1 general

Monaco Grand Prix odds

Others on request. Odds correct at time of publication. Each-way 1/3 odds, 1,2.

Monaco Grand Prix predictions

Fortunes are won and lost on the spin of a wheel every day in Monte Carlo and Lando Norris struck the jackpot in qualifying for the Monaco Grand Prix with a perfectly timed final lap to pip hometown hero Charles Leclerc to pole.

Norris and McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri occupy the first two places in the world championship, and the Australian is 13 points ahead after winning four of the first seven races. But they have faced a major challenge around the iconic street circuit this weekend, with Ferrari's Leclerc looking in the form to repeat his 2024 success in the town where he grew up.

Leclerc had the upper hand in both Friday practices and again topped the times from world champion Max Verstappen in Saturday's morning session. But Norris got it right in the third qualifying period to beat Leclerc by 0.109 seconds with Piastri close behind in third.

Last year's Monaco race produced an unedifying spectacle as the top ten drivers in qualifying all finished in exactly the same positions after a processional race. However, this year's outcome should be much less predictable as organisers have mandated that every car must make two pit-stops in the race, which could lead to some bold gambles typical of the location. 

Teams at the back of the field may opt to make two early stops and hope to benefit from any later safety-car periods, while those at the front may protect their track position as long as they can in the hope of avoiding having to stop under green-flag conditions.

As such, Norris is hard to recommend at odds-on prices despite his pole position. The pole-sitter has won four of the last six Monaco races (counting Leclerc in 2021 when he was unable to start the race) but only five in the last ten years have been successful, although no one has won from lower than third since the wild wet race in 1996.

Bet365 are offering 8-13 that there is a virtual safety-car period in the race, 1-7 for a safety car and just 5-4 for a red flag, highlighting the expected level of disruption. 

McLaren made the right tactical call in qualifying but have not always got their race strategy right this season, so preference is to roll the dice with small bets on Piastri and Verstappen each-way at 5-1 and 16-1 (one-third the odds, two places) rather than banking on a quiet all-the-way win from Norris.

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