F1 Spanish Grand Prix betting tips and predictions: Hamilton can assert

Free F1 tips, best bets and analysis for the Spanish Grand Prix on Sunday at Circuit de Catalunya, Barcelona.

Where to watch

Sky Sports F1, 2pm, Sunday

Best bets

Mercedes win & fastest lap
2pts 11-8 Betfred

Aston Martin double points finish
1pt 10-3 bet365

Preview

Lewis Hamilton claimed an unprecedented 100th career pole position in a tight Spanish Grand Prix qualifying battle and the seven-time world champion is a warm favourite for victory.

No-one has won starting from pole position this year, but Mercedes have looked stronger in race trim than over a single lap and it's hard to see Hamilton failing to record his third win in four races this season.

Max Verstappen trails Hamilton by eight points in the championship, and missed pole by just 0.036 seconds.

But the Red Bull looked to be lacking in terms of long-run pace during practice and the Dutchman looks likely to need a bit of luck, even if he is able to muscle his way to the front at the start.

Verstappen has already overtaken Hamilton on track in all three races in 2021, but finished ahead of his rival only once.

Hamilton's Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas was less than a tenth of a second slower than Verstappen, and the Finn will be expecting a fight with the Red Bull youngster in the race.

Bottas's job for the rest of the season is to take points off Verstappen, and while he hasn't yet managed to finish a race ahead of the Dutchman, he has twice denied Verstappen a point by snatching fastest lap.

With Sergio Perez starting eighth in the second Red Bull following a difficult weekend, Bottas could well have enough of a cushion behind him to make a late pitstop for fresh tyres and try for a last-lap blast if he needs to.

The field were tightly bunched in qualifying, with just 0.55 seconds between the second and 16th-placed drivers in Q1.

Lance Stroll missed out on a place in the top ten shootout by just 0.008 seconds, while his Aston Martin teammate Sebastian Vettel was a tenth of a second further back in 13th.

Stroll already has two points finishes this season, while four-time world champion Vettel is beginning to look more comfortable with his new team.

Missing out on the top ten gives more options from a strategy point of view, which could be significant at a circuit where overtaking is difficult.

It has been a very disappointing start to the season for a team who had high hopes after a strong 2020, but the Silverstone-based outfit have a decent shot at getting both cars home in the top ten at Barcelona.

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