F1 Russian Grand Prix prediction, free betting tips and analysis

Free F1 tips, best bets and analysis for the Formula 1 Russian Grand Prix from Sochi

Where to watch

Sky Sports F1, 1pm, Sunday

Best bet

Lewis Hamilton to win Russian Grand Prix
3pts 5-6 Coral, Ladbrokes

Race preview

What a fortnight it has been for McLaren. Thirteen days after securing their first 1-2 finish since 2010, Lando Norris scored his first career pole position, setting up a fascinating Russian Grand Prix.

Championship leader Max Verstappen starts from the back after taking an engine change penalty, and with Mercedes having looked in a class of their own throughout the preliminaries, Lewis Hamilton was expected to jump back to the top of the table with an unprecedented 100th career victory.

That is still the most likely scenario, but the seven-time champion has given himself a lot of work to do from fourth on the grid following a frantic end to qualifying.

The first two segments of the hour were run on a wet track, but as the surface gradually dried it was worth the gamble for anyone not driving a Mercedes to switch to slicks for the top-ten shootout.

It looked a misguided move until the very last moments of the session, when Norris, Carlos Sainz of Ferrari and Williams’ George Russell all eclipsed Hamilton’s fastest time.

The flustered champion meanwhile damaged his front wing as he came into the pits and then spun on his final attempt to regain top spot.

Norris already has four podiums to his name this season and is in great shape for a fifth, but the bad news is that Sochi is perhaps the worst circuit at which to start from pole position.

There’s a long drag race from the start down to the first braking point, and the driver starting third has led the first lap in two of the last four years.

The even-numbered grid slots on the dirty side of the track are normally a big disadvantage too, but with so much rain recently that is likely to be much reduced.

That will at least be some relief for Hamilton, who climbed from the back to finish third on the road in Hungary, and will go into today’s race expecting to win.

It’s tempting to take the 5-2 on offer that Hamilton is in the lead at the end of lap ten, but with his usual rivals back in the field he can afford patience.

It is also worth remembering that Hamilton’s forward charge in Hungary didn’t come until after the first round of pitstops.

Hamilton has won just one of the last ten races. But in that British Grand Prix he overcame a ten-second penalty – arguably a bigger obstacle than he faces starting fourth today – to snatch the lead with two laps to go.

Today’s race could be another classic, but Hamilton could run out an easier winner this time.